Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Sep 7, 2014
Behind the scenes of integrated project delivery — successful tools and applications
The underlying variables and tools used to manage collaboration between teams is ultimately the driving for success with IPD, writes CBRE Healthcare's Megan Donham.
| Sep 7, 2014
Ranked: Top military sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Balfour Beatty, Fluor, and HDR top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest military sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 5, 2014
First Look: Zaha Hadid's Grace on Coronation towers in Australia
Zaha Hadid's latest project in Australia is a complex of three, tapered residential high-rises that have expansive grounds to provide the surrounding community unobstructed views and access to the town's waterfront.
| Sep 4, 2014
Ranked: Top courthouse sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Fentress Architects, Tutor Perini, and AECOM top BD+C's rankings of design and construction firms with the most revenue from courthouse facilities, as reported in the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 4, 2014
Hospital CEOs, architects sound off on state of healthcare design
Healthcare construction will continue to feel the effects of radical changes in the delivery of care, according to healthcare leaders attending the annual Summer Leadership Summit of the American College of Healthcare Architects and the AIA Academy of Architecture for Health.
| Sep 4, 2014
Best of education design: 11 projects win AIA CAE architecture awards [slideshow]
The CAE Design Excellence Award honors educational facilities that the jury believes should serve as an example of a superb place in which to learn. Projects range from a design school in Maryland to an elementary school in Washington.
Sponsored | | Sep 4, 2014
Learning by design: Steel curtain wall system blends two school campuses
In this the new facility, middle school and high school classroom wings flank either side of the auditorium and media center. A sleek, glass-and-steel curtain wall joins them together, creating an efficient, shared space. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Sep 4, 2014
Strong industry growth could be slowed by skilled labor shortage, says Gilbane report
While construction spending for 2014 will finish the year 5.5% higher than 2013 and the unemployment rate in construction is down to 7.5%, the industry has been losing workers for more than five years, according to a new Gilbane report.
| Sep 3, 2014
Ranked: Top local government sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
STV, HOK, and Turner top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest local government design and construction firms, as reported in the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 3, 2014
WSP to acquire Parsons Brinckerhoff in $1.35 billion deal
The deal, which has been approved by the boards of WSP and Balfour Beatty, has an enterprise value of $1.243 billion, plus another $110 million in cash retained by PB.
