Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Sep 14, 2014
Ranked: Top Veterans Administration sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
CannonDesign, Clark Group, and URS top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest Veterans Administration building sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
Sponsored | | Sep 13, 2014
5 common questions leaders should never ask
Asking the right questions can help business leaders to anticipate changes, seize opportunities and move their firms in new directions. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Sep 13, 2014
Why CEOs shouldn’t be afraid to ask for outside help
An oven-overlooked factor in assessing the success of a leader, according to organizational development consultant Brook Manville, is his or her ability to go far outside the organization to get help in solving problems. SPONSORED CONTENT
Sponsored | | Sep 13, 2014
Right Way Plumbing finishes first at Max Planck Florida Institute
The Max Planck Florida Institute consists of a three-story, 100,000-sf scientific research facility with 30,000 feet of copper joined with Viega ProPress fittings.
| Sep 12, 2014
Total immersion: Has virtual reality's time finally come?
The emergence of low-cost VR technology means that anyone with a few hundred bucks and a decent workstation can get in the game. But, as our experts reveal, pulling off VR is not so simple.
| Sep 12, 2014
Will on-site parking remain king in the development world?
In spite of the trend away from multi-car residences, not much has changed with regard to parking spot allocations within apartment buildings and other multi-unit residential developments, writes GS&P's Doug Sharp.
| Sep 11, 2014
5 competing designs unveiled for Presidio Parklands in San Francisco
To turn the underdeveloped area by Chrissy Field into new public space, San Francisco's Presidio Trust unveiled the five designs by five teams they invited earlier this year.
| Sep 11, 2014
Cintas invites public to vote for 'America's best restroom'
For the 13th consecutive year, Cintas Corporation is back with its popular America’s Best Restroom Contest. A team of survey editors once again scanned the country for the most creative and clean public restrooms and produced a crop of nominees sure to please.
| Sep 10, 2014
Ranked: Top transit facility sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Leo A Daly, URS, and Skanska head BD+C's rankings of the largest transit facility sector design and construction firms, based on the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 10, 2014
Must See: Shape-shifting architecture that responds to heat
Students in Barcelona have created a composite material using shape memory polymers that can deform and return to their original state when activated by cues like heat, humidity, and light.
