Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Sep 10, 2014
Lessons for the shore: Bolstering resilience of the built environment
Nearly 32 million people, or 28% of the East Coast's population, live in areas lying within a mile of a shore line. The good news is that municipalities are starting to take action, writes Sasaki Associates.
| Sep 9, 2014
Using Facebook to transform workplace design
As part of our ongoing studies of how building design influences human behavior in today’s social media-driven world, HOK’s workplace strategists had an idea: Leverage the power of social media to collect data about how people feel about their workplaces and the type of spaces they need to succeed.
| Sep 9, 2014
Ranked: Top religious sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Brasfield & Gorrie, Gensler, and Jacobs top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest religious sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 9, 2014
Take a look at the hardhat of the future
A Los Angeles-based startup added augmented reality technology to a hardhat, creating a smart helmet.
| Sep 9, 2014
Frank Lloyd Wright's Annie Pfeiffer Chapel brought back to life using 3D printing
Restoration of the Frank Lloyd Wright-designed chapel was made possible (and affordable) thanks to 3D printing.
| Sep 8, 2014
First Look: Foster + Partners, Fernando Romero win competition for Mexico City's newest international airport
Designed to be the world’s most sustainable airport, the plan uses a single, compact terminal scheme in lieu of a cluster of buildings, offering shorter walking distances and fewer level changes, and eliminating the need for trains and tunnels.
| Sep 8, 2014
Trimble acquires Gehry Technologies, aims to create tools for linking office and job site
Trimble and Frank Gehry announced that they have entered into a strategic alliance to collaborate to transform the construction industry by further connecting the office to on-site construction technologies. As part of the alliance, Trimble has acquired Gehry Technologies.
| Sep 7, 2014
Ranked: Top state government sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
PCL Construction, Stantec, and AECOM head BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest state government design and construction firms, as reported in the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Sep 7, 2014
Hybrid healthcare: Revamping inefficient inpatient units to revenue-producing outpatient care
It's happening at community hospitals all over America: leadership teams are looking for ways to maintain margins by managing underutilized and non-revenue producing space. GS&P's David Magner explores nontraditional healthcare models.
| Sep 7, 2014
USGBC + American Chemistry Council: Unlikely partners in green building
In this new partnership, LEED will benefit from the materials expertise of ACC and its member companies. We believe this has the potential to be transformational, writes Skanska USA's President and CEO Michael McNally.
