Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
| Aug 26, 2014
Ranked: Top industrial sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Stantec, Jacobs, and Turner top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest industrial sector design and construction firms, as reported in the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 26, 2014
High-rise concept uses 'sky street' to link towers [slideshow]
The design for a new complex in Shenzhen’s bay area consists of highly reflective glass towers, expansive garden space, and a horizontal glass structure that connects the buildings.
| Aug 25, 2014
Restoration of quake-ravaged Atascadero City Hall affirms city’s strength [2014 Reconstruction Awards]
The landmark city hall was severely damaged by the San Simeon earthquake in 2003. Reconstruction renewed the building’s stability, restored its exterior, and improved the functionality of the interior.
| Aug 25, 2014
Ranked: Top cultural facility sector AEC firms [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Arup, Gensler, and Turner head BD+C's rankings of design and construction firms with the most revenue from cultural facility projects, as reported in the 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 25, 2014
Tall wood buildings: Surveying the early innovators
Timber has been largely abandoned as a structural solution in taller buildings during the last century, in favor of concrete and steel. Perkins+Will's Rebecca Holt writes about the firm's work in surveying the burgeoning tall wood buildings sector.
| Aug 25, 2014
'Vanity space' makes up large percentage of world's tallest buildings [infographic]
Large portions of some skyscrapers are useless space used to artificially enhance their height, according to the Council on Tall Buildings and Urban Habitat.
| Aug 25, 2014
Photographer creates time-lapse video of 1 WTC using 30,000 photos
Choosing from 30,000 photos he took from the day construction began in 2006 to the day when construction was finished in 2012, Brooklyn-based photographer Benjamin Rosamund compressed 1,100 photos to create the two-minute video.
| Aug 25, 2014
Glazing plays key role in reinventing stairway design
Within the architectural community, a movement called "active design" seeks to convert barren and unappealing stairwells originally conceived as emergency contingencies into well-designed architectural focal points. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Aug 25, 2014
An easy trick for minimizing construction delays
About one out of every three construction projects is behind schedule or over budget, according to the Construction Industry Institute's Assessment of Owner Project Management Practices and Performance survey. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Aug 22, 2014
Before & After: Hospital upgrade shows shifting needs in healthcare construction
Community Hospice of Northeast Florida took an outdated 10-bed inpatient hospice unit and created a space that would meet the needs of patients receiving end of life care by creating a place that felt like home.
