Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
High-rise Construction | Dec 7, 2022
SOM reveals its design for Singapore’s tallest skyscraper
Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM) has revealed its design for 8 Shenton Way—a mixed-use tower that will stand 63 stories and 305 meters (1,000 feet) high, becoming Singapore’s tallest skyscraper. The design team also plans to make the building one of Asia’s most sustainable skyscrapers. The tower incorporates post-pandemic design features.
Office Buildings | Dec 7, 2022
Software giant SAP opens engineering academy for its global engineering workforce
Software giant SAP has opened its new SAP Academy for Engineering on the company’s San Ramon, Calif. campus. Designed by HGA, the Engineering Academy will provide professional development opportunities for SAP’s global engineering workforce. At the Engineering Academy, cohorts from SAP offices across the globe will come together for intensive, six-month training programs.
Office Buildings | Dec 6, 2022
‘Chicago’s healthiest office tower’ achieves LEED Gold, WELL Platinum, and WiredScore Platinum
Goettsch Partners (GP) recently completed 320 South Canal, billed as “Chicago’s healthiest office tower,” according to the architecture firm. Located across the street from Chicago Union Station and close to major expressways, the 51-story tower totals 1,740,000 sf. It includes a conference center, fitness center, restaurant, to-go market, branch bank, and a cocktail lounge in an adjacent structure, as well as parking for 324 cars/electric vehicles and 114 bicycles.
Mixed-Use | Dec 6, 2022
Houston developer plans to convert Kevin Roche-designed ConocoPhillips HQ to mixed-use destination
Houston-based Midway, a real estate investment, development, and management firm, plans to redevelop the former ConocoPhillips corporate headquarters site into a mixed-use destination called Watermark District at Woodcreek.
Office Buildings | Dec 5, 2022
How to foster collaboration and inspiration for a workplace culture that does not exist (yet)
A building might not be able to “hack” innovation, but it can create the right conditions to foster connection and innovation, write GBBN's Chad Burke and Zachary Zettler.
Giants 400 | Dec 1, 2022
Top 100 Office Building Core+Shell Contractors and CM Firms for 2022
Turner Construction, AECOM, Clayco, and Gilbane top the ranking of the nation's largest office building core+shell contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 1, 2022
Top 75 Office Building Core+Shell Engineering + EA Firms for 2022
Jacobs, Alfa Tech, Burns & McDonnell, and Arup head the ranking of the nation's largest office building core+shell engineering and engineering/architecture (EA) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Dec 1, 2022
Top 150 Office Building Core+Shell Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
Gensler, NBBJ, Perkins and Will, and Stantec top the ranking of the nation's largest office building core+shell architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Multifamily Housing | Nov 29, 2022
Number of office-to-apartment conversion projects has jumped since start of pandemic
As remote work rose and demand for office space declined since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, developers have found converting some offices to residential use to be an attractive option. Apartment conversions rose 25% in the two years since the start of the pandemic, with 28,000 new units converted from other property types, according to a report from RentCafe.
Giants 400 | Nov 28, 2022
Top 130 Office Sector Contractors and CM Firms for 2022
Turner Construction, STO Building Group, Gilbane, and CBRE top the ranking of the nation's largest office sector contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.