Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall âin the longer-run.â The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines donât fall evenly. There is âsome evidence of a âflight to quality,â particularly in rents,â researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases havenât come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
Reconstruction & Renovation | Feb 16, 2023
Insights from over 300 potential office-to-residential conversions
Research from Gensler finds that, surprisingly, the features that result in an unpleasant office often make for a superlative multifamily product.
High-rise Construction | Feb 15, 2023
Bjarke Ingels' 'leaning towers' concept wins Qianhai Prisma Towers design competition
A pair of sloped high-risesâa 300-meter residential tower and a 250-meter office towerâhighlight the Qianhai Prisma Towers development in Qianhai, Shenzhen, China. BIG recently won the design competition for the project.
Office Buildings | Feb 12, 2023
Smyrna Ready Mixâs new office HQ mimics the patterns in the companyâs onsite stone quarry
Designed by EOA Architects to showcase various concrete processes and applications, Smyrna Ready Mix's new office headquarters features vertical layering that mimics the patterns in the companyâs stone quarry, located on the opposite end of the campus site. The buildingâs glass and concrete bands are meant to mirror the quarryâs natural contours and striations.
Office Buildings | Feb 9, 2023
Post-Covid Manhattan office market rebound gaining momentum
Office workers in Manhattan continue to return to their workplaces in sufficient numbers for many of their employers to maintain or expand their footprint in the city, according to a survey of more than 140 major Manhattan office employers conducted in January by The Partnership for New York City.
Giants 400 | Feb 9, 2023
New Giants 400 download: Get the complete at-a-glance 2022 Giants 400 rankings in Excel
See how your architecture, engineering, or construction firm stacks up against the nation's AEC Giants. For more than 45 years, the editors of Building Design+Construction have surveyed the largest AEC firms in the U.S./Canada to create the annual Giants 400 report. This year, a record 519 firms participated in the Giants 400 report. The final report includes 137 rankings across 25 building sectors and specialty categories.  Â
Codes and Standards | Feb 8, 2023
GSA releases draft of federal low embodied carbon material standards
The General Services Administration recently released a document that outlines standards for low embodied carbon materials and products to be used on federal construction projects.
Giants 400 | Feb 6, 2023
2022 Reconstruction Sector Giants: Top architecture, engineering, and construction firms in the U.S. building reconstruction and renovation sector
Gensler, Stantec, IPS, Alfa Tech, STO Building Group, and Turner Construction top BD+C's rankings of the nation's largest reconstruction sector architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in the 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Feb 3, 2023
Top Workplace/Interior Fitout Architecture, Engineering, and Construction Firms for 2022
Gensler, Interior Architects, AECOM, STO Building Group, and CBRE top the ranking of the nation's largest workplace/interior fitout architecture, engineering, and construction firms, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 23, 2023
Long Beach, Calif., office tower converted to market rate multifamily housing
A project to convert an underperforming mid-century office tower in Long Beach, Calif., created badly needed market rate housing with a significantly lowered carbon footprint. The adaptive reuse project, composed of 203,177 sf including parking, created 106 apartment units out of a Class B office building that had been vacant for about 10 years.
Mechanical Systems | Jan 17, 2023
Why the auto industry is key to designing healthier, more comfortable buildings
Peter Alspach of NBBJ shares how workplaces can benefit from a few automotive industry techniques.
