Researchers from the NYU Stern School of Business and the Columbia University Graduate School of Business say the work-from-home movement will result in $500 billion of lost value in office real estate.
In a recent study, the researchers found a 32% decline in office values in 2020 and predict a 28% fall “in the longer-run.” The work-from-home shift since the pandemic has caused significant changes in lease revenues, office occupancy, lease renewal rates, lease durations, and market rents, researchers say.
Robust tools for working from home had been in place for years, but the necessities of the pandemic pushed widespread adoption of remote work. According to the researchers, office occupancy dropped from 95% in February 2020 to 10% within a month. By May 2022, it had only bounced back to 50%.
If the trend remains strong, a lot of office space might not be necessary. That would mean massive financial implications for land values and valuations in lending, nearby retail space, and tax resources for local governments.
The declines don’t fall evenly. There is “some evidence of a ‘flight to quality,’ particularly in rents,” researchers say. But rents may have yet to bottom out, as vacancy rates are at 30-year highs in many cities, and on average two-thirds of leases haven’t come up for renewals yet.
Related Stories
Office Buildings | May 19, 2022
JLL releases its 2022 Office Fit Out Guide
JLL’s 2022 Office Fit Out Guide report provides benchmark costs to build out a range of office types across major markets in the United States and Canada.
Headquarters | May 10, 2022
JPMorgan Chase’s new all-electric headquarters to have net-zero operational emissions
JPMorgan Chase’s recently unveiled plans for its new global headquarters building in New York City that is rife with impressive sustainability credentials.
Building Team | May 6, 2022
Atlanta’s largest adaptive reuse project features cross laminated timber
Global real estate investment and management firm Jamestown recently started construction on more than 700,000 sf of new live, work, and shop space at Ponce City Market.
Office Buildings | Apr 28, 2022
A 48-story office tower to rise over boomtown Austin
In downtown Austin, Texas, a planned 48-story office tower, The Republic, recently secured its first major tenant—allowing for the groundbreaking by midyear.
Mixed-Use | Apr 22, 2022
San Francisco replaces a waterfront parking lot with a new neighborhood
A parking lot on San Francisco’s waterfront is transforming into Mission Rock—a new neighborhood featuring rental units, offices, parks, open spaces, retail, and parking.
Market Data | Apr 14, 2022
FMI 2022 construction spending forecast: 7% growth despite economic turmoil
Growth will be offset by inflation, supply chain snarls, a shortage of workers, project delays, and economic turmoil caused by international events such as the Russia-Ukraine war.
AEC Tech | Apr 13, 2022
A robot automates elevator installation
Schindler—which manufactures and installs elevators, escalators, and moving walkways—has created a robot called R.I.S.E. (robotic installation system for elevators) to help install lifts in high-rise buildings.
Office Buildings | Apr 11, 2022
SOM-designed office tower aims to promote health and wellness
Skidmore, Owings & Merrill (SOM) recently completed work on 800 Fulton Market, a new mixed-use office building in Chicago’s historic Fulton Market/West Loop neighborhood.
Projects | Apr 6, 2022
Ryan Companies expands Chicago presence with new West Loop office
Ryan Companies US, Inc. (Ryan), a national leader in commercial real estate services, announces it has enhanced its Chicago presence with the opening of a new downtown office at 224 North Desplaines in the city’s West Loop neighborhood.
Airports | Apr 4, 2022
Dominican Republic airport expansion will add mixed-use features
The recently revealed design concept for the expansion of Santiago International Airport in the Dominican Republic includes a transformation of the current building into a mixed-use space that features an office park, business center, and hotel.
