They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Oct 3, 2011
Balance bunker and Phase III projects breaks ground at Mitsubishi Plant in Georgia
The facility, a modification of similar facilities used by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Inc. (MHI) in Japan, was designed by a joint design team of engineers and architects from The Austin Company of Cleveland, Ohio, MPSA and MHI.
| Oct 3, 2011
Cauceglia to lead Allsteel’s global accounts
Cauceglia is responsible for developing new global business strategies and expanding existing business within the Fortune 500 sector.
| Sep 30, 2011
BBS Architects & Engineers completes welcoming center at St. Charles Resurrection Cemetery
The new structure serves as the cemetery's focal architectural point and center of operations.
| Sep 30, 2011
Kilbourn joins Perkins Eastman
Kilbourn joins with more than 28 years of design and planning experience for communities, buildings, and interiors in hospitality, retail/mixed-use, corporate office, and healthcare.
| Sep 30, 2011
Design your own floor program
Program allows users to choose from a variety of flooring and line accent colors to create unique floor designs to complement any athletic facility.
| Sep 30, 2011
AAMA offers electronic technical documents with launch of virtual library
This new program offers a system for members to purchase annual licenses in order to offer electronic versions of AAMA publications in an effort to make AAMA’s technical information resources more readily available to their employees.
| Sep 29, 2011
Submit your Great Solutions
Profiles of Great Solutions will appear in December 2011 issue of Building Design+Construction.
| Sep 29, 2011
Busch Engineering, Science and Technology Residence Hall opens to Rutgers students
With a total development cost of $57 million, B.E.S.T. is the first on-campus residence hall constructed by Rutgers since 1994.
| Sep 29, 2011
CEU series examines environmental footprint and performance properties of wood, concrete, and steel
Each course qualifies for one AIA/CES HSW/SD Learning Unit or One GBCI CE Hour.
| Sep 29, 2011
Kohler supports 2011 Solar Decathlon competition teams
Modular Architecture > In a quest to create the ultimate ‘green’ house, 20 collegiate teams compete in Washington D.C. Mall.