They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Oct 12, 2011
Vertical Transportation Systems Reach New Heights
Elevators and escalators have been re-engineered to help building owners reduce energy consumption and move people more efficiently.
| Oct 12, 2011
Building a Double Wall
An aged federal building gets wrapped in a new double wall glass skin.
Office Buildings | Oct 12, 2011
8 Must-know Trends in Office Fitouts
Office designs are adjusting to dramatic changes in employee work habits. Goodbye, cube farm. Hello, bright, open offices with plenty of collaborative space.
| Oct 12, 2011
FMI’s Construction Outlook: Third Quarter 2011 Report
Construction Market Forecast: The general economy is seeing mixed signs.
| Oct 12, 2011
Bulley & Andrews celebrates 120 years of construction
The family-owned and operated general contractor attributes this significant milestone to the strong foundation built decades ago on honesty, integrity, and service in construction.
| Oct 12, 2011
Consigli Construction breaks ground for Bigelow Laboratory Center for Ocean Health
Consigli to build third phase of 64-acre Ocean Science and Education Campus, design by WBRC Architects , engineers in association with Perkins + Will
| Oct 11, 2011
AIA introduces five new documents for use on sustainable projects
These new documents will be available in the first quarter of 2012 as part of the new AIA Contract Documents service and AIA Documents on Demand.
| Oct 11, 2011
Pink light bulbs donated to Society of Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
For every Bulbrite Pink Light Bulb that is purchased through the Cancer Center Thrift Shop, 100% of the proceeds will be donated to help support breast cancer research, education, screening, and treatment.
| Oct 11, 2011
ThyssenKrupp elevator cabs validated by UL Environment
The conclusive and independent third-party validation process is another step toward a green product line.
| Oct 11, 2011
Ballard Spahr launches real estate recovery group
The new group represents an expansion of the company’s Distressed Real Estate Initiative, which was launched in 2008 to help clients throughout the country plan, adapt and prosper in a challenging economic environment.