They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Sep 12, 2011
PVs play new roles as a teaching tool
Solar installations are helping K-12 schools around the country save money and teach students the intricacies of renewable energy sources.
| Sep 12, 2011
Living Buildings: Are AEC Firms up to the Challenge?
Modular Architecture > You’ve done a LEED Gold or two, maybe even a LEED Platinum. But are you and your firm ready to take on the Living Building Challenge? Think twice before you say yes.
| Sep 12, 2011
First phase of plan to revitalize Florida's Hialeah Park announced
This is the first project of a master plan developed to revive the historic racetrack.
| Sep 9, 2011
Kauffman Center for the Performing Arts in Kansas City opens this month
Theatre Projects played the lead role in theatre design and planning as well as in engineering the customized theatre equipment. BNIM in Kansas City served as the executive architect.
| Sep 9, 2011
$22 million investment made in energy efficient building maker
The buildings use at least 25% less energy than the strictest building codes in the U.S., and as much as 80% less energy in certain parts of the country.
| Sep 8, 2011
Two promoted at ajc architects
ajc architects announced the promotion of Joshua W. Greene, AIA, NCARB, LEED Green Associate to Associate Principal of the firm. The firm also announced that Kent Rigby, AIA, has been promoted to Associate Architect.
| Sep 7, 2011
KSS Architects wins AIA NJ design award
The project was one of three to win the award in the category of Architectural/Non-Residential.
| Sep 7, 2011
Administration, Maintenance and Operations Facility in South Bend achieves LEED Platinum
The facility achieved 52 LEED points, including those for site selection, energy, materials and resources and innovation.
| Sep 6, 2011
Construction on Beijing's tallest building starts next week
The 108 floor mixed-use skyscraper consists of offices, apartments, hotels and shopping malls on the lower floors.