They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Feb 21, 2012
PV America West conference showcases solar growth market
Solar industry gathers March 19-21, 2012 in San Jose to discuss technology, market development and policy.
| Feb 21, 2012
SMPS announces Build Business 2012 keynote speakers
National conference set for July 11–13 in San Francisco.
| Feb 20, 2012
Comment period for update to USGBC's LEED Green Building Program now open
This third draft of LEED has been refined to address technical stringency and rigor, measurement and performance tools, and an enhanced user experience.
| Feb 20, 2012
Sto Corp. announces new technical director for Canada
Edgar will have full responsibility of specifications, details, website technical content, testing and approvals, and will support the Canada sales team.
| Feb 20, 2012
GAF introduces web portal for architects and specifiers
The new portal offers a clean look with minimal clutter to make it easier to find the technical information and product data that architects need.
| Feb 20, 2012
All Steel names Breagy director of metro New York
Breagy is responsible for overseeing this region’s sales team while strategically coordinating the sales efforts of Allsteel dealers and representatives in the tri-state area.
| Feb 17, 2012
Tremco Inc. headquarters achieves LEED Gold certification
Changes were so extensive that the certification is for new construction and not for renovation; officially, the building is LEED-NC.
| Feb 17, 2012
MacInnis joins Gilbane board of directors
MacInnis is the chairman and recently retired CEO of Connecticut-based EMCOR Group, Inc.
| Feb 16, 2012
Gain greater agility and profitability with ArchiCAD BIM software
White paper was written with the sole purpose of providing accurate, reliable information about critical issues related to BIM and what ArchiCAD with advanced technology such as the GRAPHISOFT BIM Server provide as an answer to address these issues.