They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Feb 16, 2012
TLC Engineering for Architecture opens Chattanooga office
TLC Engineering for Architecture provides mechanical, electrical, structural, plumbing, fire protection, communication, technology, LEED, commissioning and energy auditing services.
| Feb 16, 2012
Summit Design + Build begins build-out for Emmi Solutions in Chicago
The new headquarters will total 20,455 sq. ft. and feature a loft-style space with exposed masonry and mechanical systems, 15 foot clear ceilings, two large rooftop skylights and private offices with full glass partition walls.
| Feb 16, 2012
Highland named president of McCarthy Building Companies’ California region
Highland moved into this new role in January 2012 following a six-month transition period with Carter Chappell, the company’s former president, California region.
| Feb 16, 2012
Big-box retailers not just for DIYers
Nearly half of all contractor purchases made from stores like Home Depot and Lowe's.
| Feb 16, 2012
4.8-megawatt solar power system completed at Jersey Gardens Mall
Solar array among the largest rooftop systems in North America.
| Feb 15, 2012
Fourth-generation Ryan to lead Ryan Companies AE team
Ryan leads a team of eight architects, four civil engineers, two landscape architects and two virtual building specialists in their efforts to realize their customer’s vision and needs through Ryan’s integrated project delivery system.
| Feb 15, 2012
NAHB sees gradual improvement in multifamily sales for boomers
However, since the conditions of the current overall housing market are limiting their ability to sell their existing homes, this market is not recovering as quickly as might have been expected.
| Feb 15, 2012
Skanska secures $87M contract for subway project
The construction value of the project is $261.9 M. Skanska will include its full share, $87 M, in the bookings for Skanska USA Civil for the first quarter 2012.
| Feb 15, 2012
Code allowance offers retailers and commercial building owners increased energy savings and reduced construction costs
Specifying air curtains as energy-saving, cost-cutting alternatives to vestibules in 3,000-square-foot buildings and larger has been a recent trend among consulting engineers and architects.
| Feb 15, 2012
Englewood Construction announces new projects with Destination Maternity, American Girl
Englewood’s newest project for Wisconsin-based doll retailer American Girl, the company will combine four vacant storefronts into one large 15,000 square-foot retail space for American Girl.