They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Mar 1, 2012
7 keys to ‘Highest value, lowest cost’ for healthcare construction
The healthcare design and construction picture has been muddied by uncertainty over the new healthcare law. Hospital systems are in a bind, not knowing what levels of reimbursement to expect. Building Teams serving this sector will have to work even harder to meet growing client demands.
| Mar 1, 2012
Cornell shortlists six architectural firms for first building on tech campus
Each of the firms will be asked to assemble a team of consultants and prepare for an interview to discuss their team’s capabilities to successfully design the university’s project.
| Mar 1, 2012
Aragon Construction completes 67,000-sf build-out in NYC
Aragon constructed the space in partnership with Milo Kleinberg Design Associates, (MKDA) and the Craven Corp. as the owner’s representative.
| Mar 1, 2012
Bomel completes design-build parking complex at U.C. San Diego
The $24-million facility, which fits into a canyon setting on the university’s East Campus, includes 1,200 stalls in two adjoining garages and a soccer field on a top level.
| Mar 1, 2012
Eidco Construction bolsters Chicago office
Eldco hires Peterson and Vivoda as senior project managers.
| Mar 1, 2012
Reconstruction of L.A.’s Dunbar Hotel underway
Withee Malcolm Architects’ designs for the project include the complete renovation of the Dunbar Hotel and the Somerville Apartments I and II.
| Feb 29, 2012
C.W. Driver opens new office, appoints Castillo regional SVP
Castillo will oversee projects with new and existing clients in northern California within the areas of education, healthcare/biomedical, public sector, military contracting, entertainment, retail, corporate and hospitality.
| Feb 29, 2012
Report says BIPV glass market to reach $6.4 billion by 2016
The report analyzes the opportunities for BIPV glass products using c-Si, thin-film and OPV/DSC materials and provides eight-year forecasts in terms of MW and square footage shipped as well as forecasts of revenue generated.
| Feb 29, 2012
Construction begins on Keller Army Community Hospital addition
The 51,000 square foot addition will become the home for optometry, ophthalmology, physical therapy, and orthopedics clinics, as well as provide TRICARE office space.
| Feb 29, 2012
Carvalho appointed Shawmut Safety Director
He has been a driving force behind multiple safety-orientated initiatives at Shawmut, including Safety Week, the creation of an online safety manual, and the implementation of a new safety reporting and tracking system.
