They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Jul 12, 2012
Cramer joins Gilbane’s NYC Business Development Team
New Business Development Manager brings over 30 years of experience to Gilbane.
| Jul 12, 2012
Cardoso joins Margulies Perruzzi Architects
Senior architect brings experience, leadership to firm’s healthcare practice.
| Jul 12, 2012
EE&K and Knutson Construction selected for the Interchange in Minneapolis
Design-build contract for $79.3 million transportation hub will connect transit with culture.
| Jul 11, 2012
New BDC University course: Design Criteria for Ceramic Tile/Stone Installations
Everyone that successfully completed to course will receive 1.0 HSW/LU AIA LU.
| Jul 11, 2012
Perkins+Will designs new home for Gateway Community College
Largest one-time funded Connecticut state project and first designed to be LEED Gold.
| Jul 11, 2012
HOK honored with Los Angeles architectural award
42nd annual awards from the Los Angeles Business Council honor design excellence.
| Jul 11, 2012
Skanska relocates its Philadelphia metro office
Construction firm’s new 19,100-sf office targets LEED Gold certification.
| Jul 9, 2012
Modular Construction Delivers Model for New York Housing in Record Time
A 65-unit supportive housing facility in Brooklyn, N.Y., was completed in record time using modular construction with six stories set in just 12 days.
| Jul 9, 2012
NELSON, Torchia announce merger
Former competitors seek competitive advantage by joining forces.
| Jul 9, 2012
Integrated Design Group completes UCSB data center
Firm uses European standard of power at USCB North Hall Research Data Center.