They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Jul 17, 2012
AIA and Architecture for Humanity select Disaster Response Grant recipients
Awards help each group implement their locally driven preparedness project in the second half of the year.
| Jul 17, 2012
KM/Plaza changes name to Plaza Construction
Lands new projects including the Perry South Beach Hotel and Dadeland Mall Kendall Wing Expansion.
| Jul 17, 2012
Dr. Phillips Charities Headquarters Building receives LEED Silver
The building incorporates sustainable design features, environmentally-friendly building products, energy efficient systems, and environmentally sensitive construction practices.
| Jul 16, 2012
BD+C Under 40 Leadership Summit scheduled
Attendee registration for U40 Summit II now open.
| Jul 16, 2012
Construction spending at 2 ½ year peak
Construction economist Ken Simonson says that four private nonresidential categories each posted 12-month spending increases of more than 25%: power and energy construction, 35%; hotels, 29%; educational and manufacturing, 27% apiece.
| Jul 16, 2012
Chen named design director at Heery
Chen comes to Heery from his own firm, Mark Chen Architect, a design and planning consulting firm, based in New York City, whose recent work includes large-scale planning studies for mixed-use projects.
| Jul 16, 2012
Reed Construction hires new project manager
Fread is a LEED AP and received his degree from Purdue University.
| Jul 16, 2012
Business school goes for maximum vision, transparency, and safety with fire rated glass
Architects were able to create a 2-hour exit enclosure/stairwell that provided vision and maximum fire safety using fire rated glazing that seamlessly matched the look of other non-rated glazing systems.
| Jul 12, 2012
New firm RSK Avanti Partners offers market development services
Full-service consulting firm is focused on working with product manufacturers, designers, specifies and contractors in the building construction market.
| Jul 12, 2012
Chicago Public Schools names Lend Lease team as construction manager
Under this Capital Improvement Program, the Lend Lease team will be responsible for renovation and life safety work at over 100 Chicago Public Schools across the City.
