They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Jul 19, 2012
Contractors finally ‘moving off the bottom’
C and CM Agent + PM Giants 300 Firms also taking steps to improve project efficiency.
| Jul 19, 2012
The best states for a construction job
The top anticipated engineering and skilled labor shortages according to a survey of 2,223 construction industry professionals.
| Jul 19, 2012
Suffolk Construction launches subcontractor development series
Professional certificate program to provide core construction management skills to disadvantaged, minority, and women business enterprises.
| Jul 19, 2012
Construction begins on military centers to treat TBI and PTS
First two of several centers to be built in Fort Belvoir, Va. and Camp Lejeune, N.C.
| Jul 18, 2012
U.S. engineering firms set sail for foreign ports
Other E/EA Giants 300 firms are just dipping their toes into foreign waters, still looking for international business but choosing not to establish additional offices.
| Jul 18, 2012
Architecture giants spreading their wings
A/AE Giants 300 rankings reveal firms branching out globally, merging, adding services.
| Jul 18, 2012
Green expert Kats joins GreenWizard as an advisor
Kats' role is to help further expand GreenWizard’s impact in the sustainable construction industry.
| Jul 18, 2012
Construction employment stagnates in June
Lack of hiring in construction combined with job growth elsewhere threatens to create skilled-labor gap once contractors are ready to hire again.
| Jul 18, 2012
Legat & Kingscott relocates architecture/interior design office
Move enables the architecture/interior design firm to better serve its expanding clientele.
| Jul 18, 2012
Alcoa appoints Hunter Architectural Manager
Hunter to operate with the goal of driving specification, new product adoption and overall demand for the Alcoa BCS North America product range.