They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Nov 21, 2014
Nelson adds to its stable with EHS Design acquisition
This represents Nelson’s fifth merger or acquisition in 2014, during which the firm’s net fee revenue has increased by 60% to $65 million.
| Nov 21, 2014
Nonresidential Construction Index rises in fourth quarter
There are a number of reasons for optimism among respondents of FMI's quarterly Nonresidential Construction Index survey, including healthier backlogs and low inflation.
| Nov 21, 2014
NCARB: Number of architects in U.S. grows 1.6% in 2014, surpasses 107,500
The architecture profession continues to grow along with a gradually recovering economy, based on the results of the 2014 Survey of Architectural Registration Boards, conducted by the National Council of Architectural Registration Boards.
| Nov 20, 2014
Lean Led Design: How Building Teams can cut costs, reduce waste in healthcare construction projects
Healthcare organizations are under extreme pressure to reduce costs, writes CBRE Healthcare's Lora Schwartz. Tools like Lean Led Design are helping them cope.
| Nov 19, 2014
The evolution of airport design and construction [infographic]
Safety, consumer demand, and the new economics of flight are three of the major factors shaping how airlines and airport officials are approaching the need for upgrades and renovations, writes Skanska USA's MacAdam Glinn.
| Nov 19, 2014
Construction unemployment hits eight-year low, some states struggle to find qualified labor
The construction industry, whose workforce was decimated during the last recession, is slowly getting back on its feet. However, in certain markets—especially those where oil drilling and production have been prospering—construction workers can still be scarce.
Sponsored | | Nov 19, 2014
3 technology trends on the horizon
As technology continues to evolve exponentially, construction firms have ongoing opportunities to enhance the quality, speed, and efficiency of building projects and processes. SPONSORED CONTENT
Sponsored | | Nov 19, 2014
Long-life coatings vs. long-life screws
Are you concerned with the long-life protection of your metal building project? SPONSORED CONTENT
Sponsored | | Nov 19, 2014
Fire resistive, blast-resistant glazing: Where security, safety, and transparency converge
Security, safety and transparency don’t have to be mutually exclusive thanks to new glazing technology designed to support blast and fire-resistant secure buildings. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Nov 19, 2014
Must see: Arup, Damian Rogers propose urban surf park in Melbourne
The surfing pool would offer 98-foot-wide waves that would run the length of the 500-foot-long enclave.