They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Nov 17, 2014
Workplace pilot programs: A new tool for creating workspaces employees love
In a recent article for Fast Company, CannonDesign's Meg Osman details how insurance giant Zurich used a workplace pilot program to empower its employees in the creation of its new North American headquarters.
| Nov 17, 2014
Mastering natural ventilation: 5 crucial lessons from design experts
By harnessing natural ventilation, Building Teams can achieve a tremendous reduction in energy use and increase in occupant comfort. Engineers from SOM offer lessons from the firm’s recent work.
| Nov 14, 2014
Bjarke Ingels unveils master plan for Smithsonian's south mall campus
The centerpiece of the proposed plan is the revitalization of the iconic Smithsonian castle.
| Nov 14, 2014
Haskell acquires FreemanWhite, strengthens healthcare design-build business
The combination expands Haskell’s geographic presence by adding FreemanWhite’s offices in Chicago, Charlotte, Nashville, and San Diego. FreemanWhite will retain its name and brand.
| Nov 14, 2014
What college students want in their living spaces
In a recent workshop with 62 college students, architects from Little explored the changing habits and preferences of today's students, and how those changes affect their living spaces.
| Nov 14, 2014
JetBlue opens Gensler-designed International Concourse at JFK
The 175,000-sf extension includes the conversion of three existing gates to international swing gates, and the addition of three new international swing gates.
Sponsored | | Nov 12, 2014
Eye-popping façade highlights renovation, addition at Chaffin Junior High School
The new distinctive main entrance accentuates the public face of the school with an aluminum tube “baguette” system.
| Nov 12, 2014
Collaboration as competitive advantage
A collaborative planning and design process may seem like a common-sense goal, but the concept can be a challenge to achieve in the fragmented AEC industry. SPONSORED BLOG
Sponsored | | Nov 12, 2014
Williams Scotsman plugs into the jobsite
Many of our customers conduct important business from their temporary modular jobsite office and most require access to technology to get their job done effectively and efficiently. SPONSORED CONTENT
| Nov 12, 2014
Chesapeake Bay Foundation completes uber-green Brock Environmental Center, targets Living Building certification
More than a decade after opening its groundbreaking Philip Merrill Environmental Center, the group is back at it with a structure designed to be net-zero water, net-zero energy, and net-zero waste.
