They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Dec 9, 2014
ABC economist predicts continued construction industry growth in 2015
In his latest report, ABC's Chief Economist Anirban Basu forecasts nonresidential construction spending to expand by roughly 7.5% next year, led by the power, lodging, office, and manufacturing sectors.
| Dec 8, 2014
How brick and mortar enables online retail
According to a shopping preferences study conducted by A.T. Kearney, as many as two-thirds of shoppers go to a physical store before or after making an online purchase, writes Gensler's Jill Nickels.
| Dec 8, 2014
The year’s boldest BIM/VDC themes
High-speed rendering software, custom APIs, virtual reality tools, and BIM workflow tips were among the hottest BIM/VDC topics in 2014.
| Dec 8, 2014
AEC firms upbeat about financial results, 2015 looking rosier [exclusive BD+C survey]
The market outlook is brighter for U.S. architecture, engineering, and construction companies, with a majority of AEC firms reporting higher revenues, strong forecasts, and sound financial health, according to BD+C's annual Market Forecast Survey.
| Dec 8, 2014
The global sanitation crisis leads to 2.5 million deaths every year
When we see the incredible technology being produced by global plumbing manufacturers, it’s hard to conceive why no viable technical solution to the global sanitation issue has come forth, writes BD+C's Robert Cassidy.
| Dec 8, 2014
Moshe Safdie wants to reinvent airports with Jewel Changi Airport addition
A new addition to Singapore's Changi Airport, designed by Moshe Safdie, will feature a waterfall and extensive indoor gardens.
| Dec 6, 2014
Future workplace designs shouldn’t need to favor one generation over another, says CBRE report
A new CBRE survey finds that what Millennials expect and need from offices doesn’t vary drastically from tenured employees.
| Dec 5, 2014
Plotting on the go: 3D-printed mechanical compass can print CAD drawings with high precision
Design student Ken Nakagaki has adapted a device to work with CAD software to replicate digital files on paper.
Sponsored | | Dec 5, 2014
New construction outlook report projects growth in 2015
A new 2015 construction outlook report predicts that total U.S. construction starts for 2015 will rise 9% to $612 billion. SPONSORED CONTENT