They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Mar 7, 2015
Chance encounters in workplace design: The winning ticket to the innovation lottery?
The logic behind the push to cultivate chance encounters supposes that innovation is akin to a lottery. But do chance encounters reliably and consistently yield anything of substance?
Architects | Mar 6, 2015
Study suggests our brains prefer curvy architecture
A research team at the University of Toronto at Scarborough worked with several European designers to see what sort of spaces pleases our brains more. Their finding: People are far more likely to call a room beautiful when its design is round instead of linear.
Justice Facilities | Mar 5, 2015
New courthouse blossoms into a civic space for one California town
The building's canopy suggests classical courthouse features of front porch and portico. It also helps connect the building with a public plaza that has re-centered civic activity and public gathering for the town.
Justice Facilities | Mar 5, 2015
State of the state: How state governments are funding construction projects
State budget shortfalls are making new construction and renovation projects a tough sell, leading lawmakers to seek alternative funding for these jobs.
Museums | Mar 5, 2015
A giant, silver loop in Dubai will house the Museum of the Future
The Sheikh of Dubai hopes the $136 million museum will serve as an incubator for ideas and real designs—a global destination for inventors and entrepreneurs.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Mar 5, 2015
New HOK designs for St. Louis NFL stadium unveiled
Missouri Governor Jay Nixon has assembled a task force to develop plans for an open-air NFL stadium on the North Riverfront of downtown St. Louis.
Codes and Standards | Mar 5, 2015
Charlotte, N.C., considers rule for gender-neutral public bathrooms
A few other cities, including Philadelphia, Austin, Texas, and Washington D.C., already have gender-neutral bathroom regulations.
Codes and Standards | Mar 5, 2015
FEMA cuts off funding to Indiana after Kokomo continues building stadium in flood zone
FEMA will withhold funding on $5.5 million worth of projects such as building tornado safe rooms in schools.
Reconstruction & Renovation | Mar 5, 2015
Chicago's 7 most endangered properties
Preservation Chicago released its annual list of historic buildings that are at risk of being demolished or falling into decay.
Office Buildings | Mar 5, 2015
Goettsch Partners unveils plans for dual office towers in Warsaw
The Mennica Legacy Tower development is divided into a 35-story tower located on the south east side of the site and a 10-story building on the west side.