They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Cultural Facilities | Mar 31, 2015
Pratt Institute to offer first-ever degree in placemaking
As part of its new Urban Placemaking and Management degree, Pratt will offer courses on topics such as "the history and theory of public space" and the "economics of place."
Architects | Mar 30, 2015
Q+A with Arthur Gensler, and advice from his new book
"Designers need to be trained to solve their clients’ problems through design while leading their own firms to become sustainable practices," says Gensler.
Structural Materials | Mar 30, 2015
12 projects earn structural steel industry's top building award
Calatrava's soaring Innovation Science and Technology Building at Florida Polytechnic University is among the 12 projects honored by the American Institute of Steel Construction in the 2015 IDEAS² awards competition.
Cultural Facilities | Mar 30, 2015
Designs released for new entertainment center in Lubbock, Texas
Amenities of the facility include a performance venue that seats 2,220, a smaller one that seats 425, a 6,000-sf multipurpose room, and a bistro café.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 27, 2015
Bathroom fixtures get a starchitect makeover by Bjarke Ingels
This Danish starchitect elevates the toilet paper holder (and other bathroom accessories).
Architects | Mar 27, 2015
Illustrator Federico Babina explores architecture as animals
When you pay attention, the Eiffel Tower really does look like a giraffe.
Transit Facilities | Mar 25, 2015
Kengo Kuma selected to design new Paris Metro station
The new station will serve as a hub to connect Paris' northern suburbs with the core.
Green | Mar 25, 2015
WELL Building Standard introduced in China
The WELL Building Standard is a performance-based system for measuring, certifying and monitoring features that impact human health and wellbeing, through air, water, nourishment, light, fitness, comfort, and mind.
High-rise Construction | Mar 24, 2015
Timber high-rise residential complex will tower over Stockholm waterfront
The four towers, 20 stories each, will be made entirely out of Swedish pine, from frame to façade.
Higher Education | Mar 23, 2015
Hong Kong university building will feature bioclimatic façade
The project's twin-tower design opens the campus up to the neighboring public green space, while maximizing the use of summer winds for natural ventilation.
