They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Multifamily Housing | Apr 22, 2015
Condo developers covet churches for conversions
Former churches, many of which are sitting on prime urban real estate, are being converted into libraries, restaurants, and with greater frequency condominiums.
High-rise Construction | Apr 22, 2015
Architects propose sustainable ‘vertical city’ in the Sahara
Designers aim to make the 1,476-foot tower sustainable, relying on rainwater collection, solar power, and geothermal energy.
Architects | Apr 22, 2015
Architecture Billings Index accelerates in March
For the second consecutive month, the Architecture Billings Index indicated a modest increase in design activity in March.
Green | Apr 22, 2015
AIA Committee on the Environment recognizes Top 10 Green Projects
Seattle's Bullitt Center and the University Center at The New School are among AIA's top 10 green buildings for 2015.
Museums | Apr 22, 2015
Check out Ralph Johnson's stunning nature-inspired Shanghai museum
The newly opened Shanghai Natural History Museum, designed by Perkins+Will’s Global Design Director Ralph Johnson, mimics the shape of a nautilus shell, and features natural elements throughout.
Green | Apr 22, 2015
GSA's Federal Center South Building honored with AIA Top Ten Plus Award for 'verified' sustainable performance
The annual award recognizes green building projects that have quantifiable metrics demonstrating the performance and positive impact of the sustainable design.
Architects | Apr 21, 2015
Megatrends shaping commercial building design
Gensler’s 2015 Design Forecast focuses on how changes in demographics, workplace preferences, and technology are affecting how and why structures get built.
Office Buildings | Apr 21, 2015
Stop the endless debate over open vs. closed work environments
Rather than be confused by the constant stream of opinions, leadership teams contemplating workplace investments should start with powerful employee engagement strategies that drive results.
BIM and Information Technology | Apr 21, 2015
Software tools shouldn't dictate the AEC process
With over 200 solutions on the market, construction software is one of the most complex and fragmented markets, writes Gensler's Mark Thole.
Cultural Facilities | Apr 20, 2015
Jean Nouvel loses court battle against Philharmonie de Paris over alleged design ‘sabotage’
Nouvel boycotted the January opening of the facility and asked for his name to be removed from all references to the work.