They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Hotel Facilities | Mar 4, 2015
Hotel construction pipeline reaches six-year high
After a three-year bottoming formation, the pipeline for hotel construction has posted five consecutive quarters of double-digit year-over-year growth.
BIM and Information Technology | Mar 4, 2015
Why China's CCTV building needed a WiFi retrofit
It took a year-long retrofit to get WiFi transmission issues solved at China's iconic skyscraper.
High-rise Construction | Mar 4, 2015
Must see: Egypt planning 656-foot pyramid skyscraper in Cairo
Zayed Crystal Spark Tower will stand 200 meters tall and will be just a short distance from the pyramids of Giza.
Transit Facilities | Mar 4, 2015
5+design looks to mountains for Chinese transport hub design
The complex, Diamond Hill, will feature sloping rooflines and a mountain-like silhouette inspired by traditional Chinese landscape paintings.
Energy Efficiency | Mar 4, 2015
DOE launches crowdsourcing website for technology innovators
The Oak Ridge National Laboratory launched a new crowdsourcing website called the Buildings Crowdsoucing Community to collect and share ideas by innovators for energy-efficient technologies to use in homes and buildings.
Multifamily Housing | Mar 3, 2015
10 kitchen and bath design trends for 2015
From kitchens made for pet lovers to floating vanities, the nation's top kitchen and bath designers identify what's hot for 2015.
Office Buildings | Mar 3, 2015
Former DuPont lab to be converted into business incubator near UPenn campus
The new Pennovation Center will provide collaborative and research spaces for educators, scientists, students, and the private sector.
Sponsored | BIM and Information Technology | Mar 3, 2015
The great debate: Is 3D PDF really BIM?
You can pull apart buildings, cut through floors, and view simulated animation for assembly instructions all within a PDF.
K-12 Schools | Mar 2, 2015
BD+C special report: What it takes to build 21st-century schools
How the latest design, construction, and teaching concepts are being implemented in the next generation of America’s schools.
Codes and Standards | Mar 2, 2015
Proposed energy standard for data centers, telecom buildings open for public comment
The intent of ASHRAE Standard 90.4P is to create a performance-based approach that would be more flexible and accommodating of innovative change.