Gilbane Building Company announced the Summer 2014 edition of its in-house economics report, Building for the Future — Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction. The report predicts rapid growth coupled with the lack of skilled, experienced labor and the ability to meet schedule will be some of the most important industry issues to address over the next few years.
“The good, if not, great news is that the most favorable, forward-looking conditions support expectations for strong industry growth in 2015,” said Ed Zarenski, a Gilbane estimating executive with more than 40 years in the construction business. “Very active markets will drive escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
“The challenge of anticipated workforce shortages will have a detrimental effect on labor cost, productivity, the ability to readily increase construction volume and the ability to complete projects on time," Zarenski added.
While construction spending for 2014 will finish the year 5.5% higher than 2013 and the unemployment rate in construction is down to 7.5%, the industry has been losing workers for more than five years, falling to low points in the third quarters of both 2012 and 2013.
Going forward, as the workload expands rapidly, the significant shortage of available skilled workers, as well as management-level personnel, will impact productivity and force extended work schedules. The report notes total construction spending will increase 7% for 2015, which is a good sign for future hiring, but highlights the need for workers to have the right training and skills.
Other report highlights include:
-
The workforce has never grown as fast as what will be needed to accommodate the rate of new construction growth predicted. Rapid workforce expansion leads to productivity losses.
-
Construction jobs are up 600,000, or 11% from the low point. However, new jobs plus added hours worked for the entire labor force shows total labor is up 18%. That means 40% of the total gains in labor in the past three years is due to added hours, not new jobs. That is the equivalent of nearly 400,000 jobs.
-
The average annual rate of new nonresidential construction starts for the most recent four months is $197 billion. The average for the same four months one year ago was $146 billion. It is expected to be higher in the next four months. This large increase in starts will result in a rapid increase in nonresidential buildings spending growth in the second half 2014 through 2015.
-
Residential construction will increase 12% in 2015, but non-building infrastructure will decrease 5%. Nonresidential buildings spending will grow 11%, led by commercial and office construction, both expected to be up 15% in 2015.
The report is available here.
Related Stories
Cultural Facilities | Jun 2, 2015
Snøhetta and Dialog to revitalize Willamette Falls area in Oregon
As part of the plan, an abandoned paper mill will be repurposed, while landscaping and running trails will be added.
Office Buildings | Jun 1, 2015
SHoP Architects unveils dual-glass-box scheme for Uber HQ
The plan involves two glass buildings connected with criss-crossing bridges.
Contractors | Jun 1, 2015
Nonresidential construction spending surges in April
Nonresidential construction is up by a solid 8.8% over the past year, consistent with ABC's forecast of high single-digit growth.
Office Buildings | Jun 1, 2015
Can you make a new building as cool as a warehouse?
Just as we looked at that boarded up warehouse and thought it could be something other, office towers can be reborn, writes CannonDesign's Robert Benson.
Fire and Life Safety | May 27, 2015
7 bold applications and innovations for fire and life safety
BD+C’s roundup features colorful sprinklers for offices, hotels, museums; a fire-rated curtain wall at a transit hub in Manhattan; a combination CO/smoke detector; and more.
BIM and Information Technology | May 27, 2015
4 projects honored with AIA TAP Innovation Awards for excellence in BIM and project delivery
Morphosis Architects' Emerson College building in Los Angeles and the University of Delaware’s ISE Lab are among the projects honored by AIA for their use of BIM/VDC tools.
Healthcare Facilities | May 27, 2015
Rochester, Minn., looks to escape Twin Cities’ shadow with $6.5 billion biotech development
The 20-year plan would also be a boon to Mayo Clinic, this city’s best-known address.
BIM and Information Technology | May 26, 2015
Lego-like model building kit was created by an architect for architects
Arckit, as the system is called, was designed to a 1:48 scale, making it easy to create models accurate to the real-life, physical building projected.
BIM and Information Technology | May 26, 2015
Moore's Law and the future of urban design
SmithGroupJJR's Stephen Conschafter, urban designer and planner, discusses his thoughts on the 50th anniversary of Moore's Law and how technology is transforming urban design.
Architects | May 26, 2015
AIA design competition creates portable, temporary housing for the homeless
The winning design from the AIA's "A Safe Place" competition was built at the AIA convention in Atlanta and later donated to a local non-profit partner.