Gilbane Building Company announced the Summer 2014 edition of its in-house economics report, Building for the Future — Construction Economics: Market Conditions in Construction. The report predicts rapid growth coupled with the lack of skilled, experienced labor and the ability to meet schedule will be some of the most important industry issues to address over the next few years.
“The good, if not, great news is that the most favorable, forward-looking conditions support expectations for strong industry growth in 2015,” said Ed Zarenski, a Gilbane estimating executive with more than 40 years in the construction business. “Very active markets will drive escalation to climb more rapidly than we have seen in six years.
“The challenge of anticipated workforce shortages will have a detrimental effect on labor cost, productivity, the ability to readily increase construction volume and the ability to complete projects on time," Zarenski added.
While construction spending for 2014 will finish the year 5.5% higher than 2013 and the unemployment rate in construction is down to 7.5%, the industry has been losing workers for more than five years, falling to low points in the third quarters of both 2012 and 2013.
Going forward, as the workload expands rapidly, the significant shortage of available skilled workers, as well as management-level personnel, will impact productivity and force extended work schedules. The report notes total construction spending will increase 7% for 2015, which is a good sign for future hiring, but highlights the need for workers to have the right training and skills.
Other report highlights include:
-
The workforce has never grown as fast as what will be needed to accommodate the rate of new construction growth predicted. Rapid workforce expansion leads to productivity losses.
-
Construction jobs are up 600,000, or 11% from the low point. However, new jobs plus added hours worked for the entire labor force shows total labor is up 18%. That means 40% of the total gains in labor in the past three years is due to added hours, not new jobs. That is the equivalent of nearly 400,000 jobs.
-
The average annual rate of new nonresidential construction starts for the most recent four months is $197 billion. The average for the same four months one year ago was $146 billion. It is expected to be higher in the next four months. This large increase in starts will result in a rapid increase in nonresidential buildings spending growth in the second half 2014 through 2015.
-
Residential construction will increase 12% in 2015, but non-building infrastructure will decrease 5%. Nonresidential buildings spending will grow 11%, led by commercial and office construction, both expected to be up 15% in 2015.
The report is available here.
Related Stories
Architects | Apr 30, 2015
Safdie Architects accepting applications for 2015 Research Fellowship
The program, which features a theme of “dense urbanism,” encourages participants to tackle the challenges associated with contemporary urban landscapes using new tools and solutions to create a better functioning and humane city.
Museums | Apr 27, 2015
Finalists’ designs for Guggenheim Helsinki competition released
A custom-developed App engages an international public in the selection process.
Wood | Apr 26, 2015
Building wood towers: How high is up for timber structures?
The recent push for larger and taller wood structures may seem like an architectural fad. But Building Teams around the world are starting to use more large-scale structural wood systems.
Museums | Apr 23, 2015
Moshe Safdie unveils pentagonal scheme for National Medal of Honor Museum
The new museum near Charleston, S.C., will archive the history of the nation's highest military honorees.
Green | Apr 23, 2015
3 sustainable projects take top prize in 2015 Global Holcim Awards
Projects from Colombia, Sri Lanka, and the U.S. were chosen by the Holcim Foundation for the impact the projects have on their local communities.
High-rise Construction | Apr 23, 2015
Size matters in NYC, where several projects vie for the city’s tallest building honor
The latest renderings of 217 West 57th Street show a tower that would rise higher than the World Trade Center’s pinnacle, when elevations are included.
Multifamily Housing | Apr 22, 2015
Condo developers covet churches for conversions
Former churches, many of which are sitting on prime urban real estate, are being converted into libraries, restaurants, and with greater frequency condominiums.
High-rise Construction | Apr 22, 2015
Architects propose sustainable ‘vertical city’ in the Sahara
Designers aim to make the 1,476-foot tower sustainable, relying on rainwater collection, solar power, and geothermal energy.
Architects | Apr 22, 2015
Architecture Billings Index accelerates in March
For the second consecutive month, the Architecture Billings Index indicated a modest increase in design activity in March.
Green | Apr 22, 2015
AIA Committee on the Environment recognizes Top 10 Green Projects
Seattle's Bullitt Center and the University Center at The New School are among AIA's top 10 green buildings for 2015.