Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
|
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
|
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
|
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
|
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
|
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
|
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
|
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
|
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
|
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
|
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
|
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
|
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
|
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Green | Jul 8, 2024
Global green building alliance releases guide for $35 trillion investment to achieve net zero, meet global energy transition goals
The international alliance of UK-based Building Research Establishment (BRE), the Green Building Council of Australia (GBCA), the Singapore Green Building Council (SGBC), the U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC), and the Alliance HQE-GBC France developed the guide, Financing Transformation: A Guide to Green Building for Green Bonds and Green Loans, to strengthen global cooperation between the finance and real estate sectors.
Codes and Standards | Jul 8, 2024
New York State building code update would ban fossil fuels in new buildings
New York’s Building Code Council is set to include the All-Electric Buildings Act in its 2025 code update. The Act would ban natural gas and other fossil fuels in new buildings.
AEC Tech Innovation | Jul 4, 2024
Caution competes with inevitability at conference exploring artificial intelligence for design and construction
Hosted by PSMJ, AEC Innovate in Boston found an AEC industry anxiously at the threshold of change.
Building Team | Jul 3, 2024
So you want to get published: What’s next?
In the AEC industry, securing media attention is no longer a niche endeavor but an essential component of a holistic marketing strategy.
Laboratories | Jul 3, 2024
New science, old buildings: Renovating for efficiency, flexibility, and connection
What does the research space of the future look like? And can it be housed in older buildings—or does it require new construction?
MFPRO+ New Projects | Jul 2, 2024
Miami residential condo tower provides a deeded office unit for every buyer
A new Miami residential condo office tower sweetens the deal for buyers by providing an individual, deeded and furnished office with each condo unit purchased. One Twenty Brickell Residences, a 34-story, 240-unit tower, also offers more than 60,000 sf of exclusive residential amenities.
Student Housing | Jul 1, 2024
Two-tower luxury senior living community features wellness and biophilic elements
A new, two-building, 27-story senior living community in Tysons, Va., emphasizes wellness and biophilic design elements. The Mather, a luxury community for adults aged 62 and older, is situated on a small site surrounded by high-rises.
Office Buildings | Jul 1, 2024
Mastering office layouts: 5 primary models for maximum efficiency and productivity
When laying out an office, there are many factors to consider. It’s important to maximize the space, but it’s equally important to make sure the design allows employees to work efficiently.
Smart Buildings | Jul 1, 2024
GSA to invest $80 million on smart building technologies at federal properties
The U.S. General Services Administration (GSA) will invest $80 million from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) into smart building technologies within 560 federal buildings. GSA intends to enhance operations through granular controls, expand available reporting with more advanced metering sources, and optimize the operator experience.
Sustainability | Jul 1, 2024
Amazon, JPMorgan Chase among companies collaborating with ILFI to advance carbon verification
Four companies (Amazon, JPMorgan Chase, JLL, and Prologis) are working with the International Living Future Institute to support development of new versions of Zero Carbon Certification.
