Even with the myriad of obstacles preventing a full scale recovery for the overall U.S. economy, the design and construction industry appears to have reasons to be at least modestly optimistic in the coming months and into next year.
A sharp spike in demand for industrial facilities so far this year, along with sustained demand for hotels and retail projects factors into what projects to be a 4.4% rise in spending this year for nonresidential construction projects – up from a projection of a 2.1% increase in the January Consensus Forecast.
The American Institute of Architects (AIA) semi-annual Consensus Construction Forecast, a survey of the nation’s leading construction forecasters, also projects a 6.2% increase of spending in 2013.
“With companies looking to bring back manufacturing jobs from overseas, there has been a sharp rise in demand for industrial facilities, which is leading to an upward revision in projections for future construction spending,” said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. “Continued budget shortfalls at the state and local level, along with a depressed municipal bond market are holding the institutional market back from seeing similar upticks in spending.”
Market Segment Consensus Growth Forecasts |
2012 |
2013 |
Overall nonresidential |
4.4% |
6.20% |
Commercial / industrial |
5.7% |
10.20% |
Industrial |
12.9% |
8.10% |
Hotels |
9.5% |
18.20% |
Retail |
6.2% |
9.00% |
Office buildings |
4.7% |
8.70% |
Institutional |
0.7% |
3.00% |
Healthcare facilities |
4.0% |
7.50% |
Education |
0.3% |
1.10% |
Amusement / recreation |
0.1% |
2.30% |
Public safety |
0.0% |
0.10% |
Religious |
-5.0% |
3.00% |
Remarking on what risks exist that could undermine these projections, Baker added, “Federal tax and spending changes – the so-called fiscal cliff – that may come into play in early 2013 could upset the economic applecart and prove detrimental to recovery possibilities. We will likely have a better sense after the presidential election what will happen with regards to the Bush-era tax cuts, Social Security payroll tax, extended unemployment, and deficit reduction plans that will have a ripple effect that will extend to the construction industry.” +
Related Stories
Geothermal Technology | Jul 29, 2024
Rochester, Minn., plans extensive geothermal network
The city of Rochester, Minn., home of the famed Mayo Clinic, is going big on geothermal networks. The city is constructing Thermal Energy Networks (TENs) that consist of ambient pipe loops connecting multiple buildings and delivering thermal heating and cooling energy via water-source heat pumps.
High-rise Construction | Jul 29, 2024
Safdie Architects’ Shanghai office tower features glass-enclosed corner garden that ascends the 35-story structure
Safdie Architects has announced the completion of LuOne Mixed-Use Complex—a business, retail, and entertainment development in the Luwan district of Shanghai, China. The mixed-use complex consists of an eight-level retail galleria, which opened in 2018, and a 35-story office tower, which recently reached completion.
Casinos | Jul 26, 2024
New luxury resort casino will be regional draw for Shreveport, Louisiana area
Live! Casino & Hotel Louisiana, the first land-based casino in the Shreveport-Bossier market, recently topped off. The $270+ project will serve as a regional destination for world-class gaming, dining, entertainment, and hotel amenities.
Smart Buildings | Jul 25, 2024
A Swiss startup devises an intelligent photovoltaic façade that tracks and moves with the sun
Zurich Soft Robotics says Solskin can reduce building energy consumption by up to 80% while producing up to 40% more electricity than comparable façade systems.
Codes and Standards | Jul 25, 2024
GSA and DOE select technologies to evaluate for commercial building decarbonization
The General Services Administration and the U.S. Department of Energy have selected 17 innovative building technologies to evaluate in real-world settings throughout GSA’s real estate portfolio.
Great Solutions | Jul 23, 2024
41 Great Solutions for architects, engineers, and contractors
AI ChatBots, ambient computing, floating MRIs, low-carbon cement, sunshine on demand, next-generation top-down construction. These and 35 other innovations make up our 2024 Great Solutions Report, which highlights fresh ideas and innovations from leading architecture, engineering, and construction firms.
Senior Living Design | Jul 23, 2024
The growing importance of cultural representation in senior living communities
Perkins Eastman architect Mwanzaa Brown reflects on the ties between architecture, interior design, and the history and heritage of a senior living community’s population.
MFPRO+ News | Jul 22, 2024
Miami luxury condominium tower will have more than 50,000 sf of amenities
Continuum Club & Residences, a new 32-story luxury condominium tower in the coveted North Bay Village of Miami will feature more than 50,000 sf of indoor and outdoor amenities. The program includes a waterfront restaurant, dining terraces with resident privileges, and a private dining room outdoor pavilion.
Healthcare Facilities | Jul 22, 2024
5 healthcare building sector trends for 2024-2025
Interactive patient care systems and trauma-informed design are among two emerging trends in the U.S. healthcare building sector, according to BD+C's 2024 Healthcare Annual Report (free download; short registration required).
MFPRO+ News | Jul 22, 2024
6 multifamily WAFX 2024 Prize winners
Over 30 projects tackling global challenges such as climate change, public health, and social inequality have been named winners of the World Architecture Festival’s WAFX Awards.