The deterioration in construction output growth across emerging markets has been worse than previously expected, particularly in the US and the Middle East. Therefore, the forecast for global construction output growth in 2019 has been revised down to 2.7%, which will be the slowest pace of growth in a decade, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s central forecast sees global construction output growth increase to 3.2% in 2020 and then stabilize at 3.4% over the remainder of the forecast period, which runs to 2023. According to the company’s latest report, ‘Global Construction Outlook to 2023 – Q3 2019 Update’, this is partly driven by a projected improvement in the global economy in 2020, which in turn relies on improvements in financial market sentiment and stabilization in some of the larger currently-troubled emerging markets.
Danny Richards, Lead Economist at GlobalData, comments: “Some major advanced economies have struggled to generate growth momentum, including the US, the UK and Australia. In China, where the authorities are stepping up investment in infrastructure to prevent a continued slowdown, growth will remain positive, contributing to a slight acceleration in growth in total output in the emerging markets.”
Richards continues: “Geopolitical risks are intensifying, which could potentially undermine investor confidence and disrupt capital flows in the early part of the forecast period. Risks to the overall forecast stem primarily from a possible escalation in the trade war between the US and China, as well as inflamed tensions between the US and Iran following the recent drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil processing center, which were blamed on Iran.
“The emerging markets of South-East Asia will invest heavily in new infrastructure projects, supported by private investment, and this region will be the fastest growing, expanding by 6.4% between 2019 and 2023.”
Information based on GlobalData’s report: ‘Global Construction Outlook to 2023 – Q3 2019 Update.
Related Stories
Market Data | Feb 24, 2021
2021 won’t be a growth year for construction spending, says latest JLL forecast
Predicts second-half improvement toward normalization next year.
Market Data | Feb 23, 2021
Architectural billings continue to contract in 2021
AIA’s Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for January was 44.9 compared to 42.3 in December.
Healthcare Facilities | Feb 18, 2021
The Weekly show, Feb 18, 2021: What patients want from healthcare facilities, and Post-COVID retail trends
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders from JLL and Landini Associates about what patients want from healthcare facilities, based on JLL's recent survey of 4,015 patients, and making online sales work for a retail sector recovery.
Market Data | Feb 17, 2021
Soaring prices and delivery delays for lumber and steel squeeze finances for construction firms already hit by pandemic
Association officials call for removing tariffs on key materials to provide immediate relief for hard-hit contractors and exploring ways to expand long-term capacity for steel, lumber and other materials,
Market Data | Feb 9, 2021
Construction Backlog and contractor optimism rise to start 2021, according to ABC member survey
Despite the monthly uptick, backlog is 0.9 months lower than in January 2020.
Market Data | Feb 9, 2021
USGBC top 10 states for LEED in 2020
The Top 10 States for LEED green building is based on gross square feet of certified space per person using 2010 U.S. Census data and includes commercial and institutional projects certified in 2020.
Market Data | Feb 8, 2021
Construction employment stalls in January with unemployment rate of 9.4%
New measures threaten to undermine recovery.
Market Data | Feb 4, 2021
Construction employment declined in 2020 in majority of metro areas
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land and Brockton-Bridgewater-Easton, Mass. have worst 2020 losses, while Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind. and Walla Walla, Wash. register largest gains in industry jobs.
Market Data | Feb 3, 2021
Construction spending diverges in December with slump in private nonresidential sector, mixed public work, and boom in homebuilding
Demand for nonresidential construction and public works will decline amid ongoing pandemic concerns.
Market Data | Feb 1, 2021
The New York City market is back on top and leads the U.S. hotel construction pipeline
New York City has the greatest number of projects under construction with 108 projects/19,439 rooms.