The deterioration in construction output growth across emerging markets has been worse than previously expected, particularly in the US and the Middle East. Therefore, the forecast for global construction output growth in 2019 has been revised down to 2.7%, which will be the slowest pace of growth in a decade, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s central forecast sees global construction output growth increase to 3.2% in 2020 and then stabilize at 3.4% over the remainder of the forecast period, which runs to 2023. According to the company’s latest report, ‘Global Construction Outlook to 2023 – Q3 2019 Update’, this is partly driven by a projected improvement in the global economy in 2020, which in turn relies on improvements in financial market sentiment and stabilization in some of the larger currently-troubled emerging markets.
Danny Richards, Lead Economist at GlobalData, comments: “Some major advanced economies have struggled to generate growth momentum, including the US, the UK and Australia. In China, where the authorities are stepping up investment in infrastructure to prevent a continued slowdown, growth will remain positive, contributing to a slight acceleration in growth in total output in the emerging markets.”
Richards continues: “Geopolitical risks are intensifying, which could potentially undermine investor confidence and disrupt capital flows in the early part of the forecast period. Risks to the overall forecast stem primarily from a possible escalation in the trade war between the US and China, as well as inflamed tensions between the US and Iran following the recent drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil processing center, which were blamed on Iran.
“The emerging markets of South-East Asia will invest heavily in new infrastructure projects, supported by private investment, and this region will be the fastest growing, expanding by 6.4% between 2019 and 2023.”
Information based on GlobalData’s report: ‘Global Construction Outlook to 2023 – Q3 2019 Update.
Related Stories
Market Data | Jan 15, 2016
ABC: Construction material prices continue free fall in December
In December, construction material prices fell for the sixth consecutive month. Prices have declined 7.2% since peaking in August 2014.
Market Data | Jan 13, 2016
Morgan Stanley bucks gloom and doom, thinks U.S. economy has legs through 2020
Strong job growth and dwindling consumer debt give rise to hope.
Hotel Facilities | Jan 13, 2016
Hotel construction should remain strong through 2017
More than 100,000 rooms could be delivered this year alone.
Market Data | Jan 6, 2016
Census Bureau revises 10 years’ worth of construction spending figures
The largest revisions came in the last two years and were largely upward.
Market Data | Jan 5, 2016
Majority of AEC firms saw growth in 2015, remain optimistic for 2016: BD+C survey
By all indications, 2015 was another solid year for U.S. architecture, engineering, and construction firms.
Market Data | Jan 5, 2016
Nonresidential construction spending falters in November
Only 4 of 16 subsectors showed gains
Market Data | Dec 15, 2015
AIA: Architecture Billings Index hits another bump
Business conditions show continued strength in South and West regions.
Market Data | Dec 7, 2015
2016 forecast: Continued growth expected for the construction industry
ABC forecasts growth in nonresidential construction spending of 7.4% in 2016 along with growth in employment and backlog.
