The deterioration in construction output growth across emerging markets has been worse than previously expected, particularly in the US and the Middle East. Therefore, the forecast for global construction output growth in 2019 has been revised down to 2.7%, which will be the slowest pace of growth in a decade, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s central forecast sees global construction output growth increase to 3.2% in 2020 and then stabilize at 3.4% over the remainder of the forecast period, which runs to 2023. According to the company’s latest report, ‘Global Construction Outlook to 2023 – Q3 2019 Update’, this is partly driven by a projected improvement in the global economy in 2020, which in turn relies on improvements in financial market sentiment and stabilization in some of the larger currently-troubled emerging markets.
Danny Richards, Lead Economist at GlobalData, comments: “Some major advanced economies have struggled to generate growth momentum, including the US, the UK and Australia. In China, where the authorities are stepping up investment in infrastructure to prevent a continued slowdown, growth will remain positive, contributing to a slight acceleration in growth in total output in the emerging markets.”
Richards continues: “Geopolitical risks are intensifying, which could potentially undermine investor confidence and disrupt capital flows in the early part of the forecast period. Risks to the overall forecast stem primarily from a possible escalation in the trade war between the US and China, as well as inflamed tensions between the US and Iran following the recent drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s largest oil processing center, which were blamed on Iran.
“The emerging markets of South-East Asia will invest heavily in new infrastructure projects, supported by private investment, and this region will be the fastest growing, expanding by 6.4% between 2019 and 2023.”
Information based on GlobalData’s report: ‘Global Construction Outlook to 2023 – Q3 2019 Update.
Related Stories
Market Data | Apr 9, 2021
Record jump in materials prices and supply chain distributions threaten construction firms' ability to complete vital nonresidential projects
A government index that measures the selling price for goods used construction jumped 3.5% from February to March.
Contractors | Apr 9, 2021
Construction bidding activity ticks up in February
The Blue Book Network's Velocity Index measures month-to-month changes in bidding activity among construction firms across five building sectors and in all 50 states.
Industry Research | Apr 9, 2021
BD+C exclusive research: What building owners want from AEC firms
BD+C’s first-ever owners’ survey finds them focused on improving buildings’ performance for higher investment returns.
Market Data | Apr 7, 2021
Construction employment drops in 236 metro areas between February 2020 and February 2021
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land and Odessa, Texas have worst 12-month employment losses.
Market Data | Apr 2, 2021
Nonresidential construction spending down 1.3% in February, says ABC
On a monthly basis, spending was down in 13 of 16 nonresidential subcategories.
Market Data | Apr 1, 2021
Construction spending slips in February
Shrinking demand, soaring costs, and supply delays threaten project completion dates and finances.
Market Data | Mar 26, 2021
Construction employment in February trails pre-pandemic level in 44 states
Soaring costs, supply-chain problems jeopardize future jobs.
Market Data | Mar 24, 2021
Architecture billings climb into positive territory after a year of monthly declines
AIA’s ABI score for February was 53.3 compared to 44.9 in January.
Market Data | Mar 22, 2021
Construction employment slips in 225 metros from January 2020 to January 2021
Rampant cancellations augur further declines ahead.
Market Data | Mar 18, 2021
Commercial Construction Contractors’ Outlook lifts on rising revenue expectations
Concerns about finding skilled workers, material costs, and steel tariffs linger.
