In an era of mixed signals, architects embrace cautious optimism [2013 Giants 300 Report]

Are architecture firms finally pulling out of the doldrums? The answer is a tentative yes, according to AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA.

Baker points to the AIA’s Architecture Billings Index, a leading economic indicator of construction activity that reflects the approximate nine- to 12-month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending. The ABI experienced its first drop in nine months last April (to 48.6), but bounced back in May to 52.9 (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 59.1, up slightly from the reading of 58.5 in April.

“This rebound is a good sign for the design and construction industry and hopefully means that April’s negative dip was a blip rather than a sign of challenging times to come,” says Baker. “But there is a resounding sense of uncertainty in the marketplace—from clients to investors and an overall lack of confidence in the general economy—that is continuing to act as a governor on the business development engine for architecture firms.”

On a regional basis, the Northeast (at 53.7), West (52.1), and South (50.9) were still positive, while the Midwest lagged, at 47.5. Multifamily residential remains strong, at 52.8, as do institutional (52.2) and mixed practice (51.0), but the commercial/industrial sector is still hurting, at 47.5.

TOP ARCHITECTURE FIRMS

2012 Total Revenue ($)

1 Gensler $807,143,550

2 Perkins+Will $360,300,000

3 NBBJ $187,017,000

4 Kohn Pedersen Fox Associates $153,821,100

5 Perkins Eastman $145,000,000

6 Callison $134,112,565

7 ZGF Architects $107,412,274

8 Corgan $85,377,040

9 Populous $84,000,000

10 HMC Architects $77,986,678

SEE FULL LIST

TOP ARCHITECTURE/ENGINEERING FIRMS

2012 Total Revenue ($)

1 Stantec $467,254,421

2 HOK $406,780,000

3 HDR Architecture $325,900,000

4 Skidmore, Owings & Merrill $281,686,000

5 IBI Group $252,552,343

6 HKS $240,300,000

7 RTKL Associates $202,823,000

8 Cannon Design $202,000,000

9 SmithGroupJJR $166,600,000

10 DLR Group $116,400,000

SEE FULL LIST

“All the roadblocks are easing a bit, but they’re still they’re,” says Baker. “Financing is still a big problem, and banks are still hesitant to make a real estate loan. They’re still gun-shy, so they’re setting the bar high for loan approvals.”

SEVERAL SECTORS STILL CLICKING

Looking more closely at specific sectors over the next three years, Baker sees vacancy rates for apartments increasing, from 5.0% today to 5.2% in 2015, and rental rates declining, from 3.8% now to 2.8% in a couple of years—in other words, somewhat negative fundamentals for the multifamily sector.

Giants 300 coverage of Architecture Firms brought to you by Sage www.sageglass.com

Similarly, revenue per available room at hotels is expected to drop from a high of 6.8% in 2012 and 5.5% currently, to 5.0% in 2014 and 2015. But occupancy rates should remain steady, in the 63% range.

Overall, Baker foresees positive fundamentals for several key sectors. The office market should witness declining vacancy rates, from 15.4% in 2012 to 13.6% in 2015, and improved rental rates increases, to 4.0% over the next two years, from 3.5% today. Ditto for retail and industrial/warehouse, where market fundamentals also look positive through 2015, in Baker’s analysis.

As for the healthcare sector, the AIA economist says that, in his opinion, the Affordable Care Act can only benefit construction of new facilities. “With 30 or 40 million more Americans coming on to the system, it’s hard to come up with a scenario that’s bad for healthcare construction,” he says. “You’ve got to increase it.”

As for education, Baker says he wonders if universities are going to be able to keep up the construction wars for fancy new student unions, recreation centers, and the like. “The little echo boom demographic bubble has passed, and institutions are going to have to be more reasonable” in what they can afford to build, he says. In the K-12 arena, Baker says many schools that were built in the ’60s and ’70s may have to be replaced, whether or not the demographics support the case.

GOOD TIME FOR DESIGN FIRMS TO GET INTO ACTION

What do all these numbers mean to architecture firms, whether a boutique or midsize emerging firm, or a Giants300 market leader?

According to Baker, larger firms survived the downturn the best. “We heard a lot of stories of clients trading up, getting big firms to do work for them, firms that wouldn’t have bothered with such clients in the past,” he says.

Baker sees the possibility of more consolidation in coming years. “The classic case was the big engineering/architecture firm buying up an architecture firm to broaden the base of its offerings,” says Baker. He thinks more alliances may also be formed in years ahead—an East Coast firm that’s strong in the education sector linking up with a West Coast healthcare leader, for example, to strengthen their overall positions in the national market.

Baker, who has been through his share of recessions in his 28-year career as an economist, remains optimistic about the profession of architecture. “I do think it’s a great time to be in the profession, and if you own a firm, you’re going to see modest to firm growth in the next few years.”

The downside risk of taking aggressive action has begun to diminish, says Baker. His advice to management of architectural firms: “To the extent that they’ve been thinking about doing something for a while—opening a new office in a promising geographic market, making an acquisition—this is probably a good time to pull the trigger.”

Read BD+C's full Giants 300 Report

The days of uninspired dorm rooms with little more than a bed and a communal bathroom down the hall are long gone. Students increasingly seek inclusive design, communities to enhance learning and living, and a focus on wellness that encompasses everything from meditation spaces to mental health resources.

Museums | Jun 20, 2024

Connecticut’s Bruce Museum more than doubles its size with a 42,000-sf, three-floor addition

In Greenwich, Conn., the Bruce Museum, a multidisciplinary institution highlighting art, science, and history, has undergone a campus revitalization and expansion that more than doubles the museum’s size. Designed by EskewDumezRipple and built by Turner Construction, the project includes a 42,000-sf, three-floor addition as well as a comprehensive renovation of the 32,500-sf museum, which was originally built as a private home in the mid-19th century and expanded in the early 1990s.

A promising research project looks at the possibilities for thermoelectric systems to thermally condition buildings, writes Mahsa Farid Mohajer, Sustainable Building Analyst with Stantec.

Building Technology | Jun 18, 2024

Could ‘smart’ building facades heat and cool buildings?

A promising research project looks at the possibilities for thermoelectric systems to thermally condition buildings, writes Mahsa Farid Mohajer, Sustainable Building Analyst with Stantec.

University Buildings | Jun 18, 2024

UC Riverside’s new School of Medicine building supports team-based learning, showcases passive design strategies

The University of California, Riverside, School of Medicine has opened the 94,576-sf, five-floor Education Building II (EDII). Created by the design-build team of CO Architects and Hensel Phelps, the medical school’s new home supports team-based student learning, offers social spaces, and provides departmental offices for faculty and staff.

Medical healthcare digital hologram anatomy of human heart and organs concept, with graphical icon display ai holographic display assistant technology. 3d modeling with lab banner background

Healthcare Facilities | Jun 18, 2024

A healthcare simulation technology consultant can save time, money, and headaches

As the demand for skilled healthcare professionals continues to rise, healthcare simulation is playing an increasingly vital role in the skill development, compliance, and continuing education of the clinical workforce.

British Columbia's Cowichan District Hospital replacement project features mass timber community hall, Rendering courtesy Parkin Architects

Mass Timber | Jun 17, 2024

British Columbia hospital features mass timber community hall

The Cowichan District Hospital Replacement Project in Duncan, British Columbia, features an expansive community hall featuring mass timber construction. The hall, designed to promote social interaction and connection to give patients, families, and staff a warm and welcoming environment, connects a Diagnostic and Treatment (“D&T”) Block and Inpatient Tower.

Codes | Jun 17, 2024

To avoid lawsuits, contractors and designers need to do more than comply with codes

Climate change is making design and construction more challenging and increasing the potential for lawsuits against building teams, according to insurance experts. Building to code is not enough to reduce liability because codes have not kept up with the rapid climate changes that are making extreme weather more common.

Concrete Technology | Jun 17, 2024

MIT researchers are working on a way to use concrete as an electric battery

Researchers at MIT have developed a concrete mixture that can store electrical energy. The researchers say the mixture of water, cement, and carbon black could be used for building foundations and street paving.

Codes and Standards | Jun 17, 2024

Federal government releases national definition of a zero emissions building

The U.S. Department of Energy has released a new national definition of a zero emissions building. The definition is intended to provide industry guidance to support new and existing commercial and residential buildings to move towards zero emissions across the entire building sector, DOE says.