Associated Builders and Contractors reported that its Construction Backlog Indicator declined to 8.4 months in October from 9.0 months in September, according to an ABC member survey conducted from Oct. 19 to Nov. 2. The reading is down 0.4 months from October 2022.
Backlog now stands at its lowest level since the first quarter of 2022. Declines were concentrated among the smallest contractors, those with less than $30 million in annual revenues. All three other revenue categories experienced an increase in backlog in October.
ABC’s Construction Confidence Index readings for sales, staffing levels and profit margins fell in October. All three readings remain above the threshold of 50, indicating expectations for growth over the next six months.
“While larger contractors continue to disproportionately benefit from a bevy of megaprojects around the nation, many smaller contractors are feeling the sting of weaker economic fundamentals in struggling commercial real estate segments,” said ABC Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Smaller contractors are often the ones most dependent on developer-driven activity. With developers facing both higher borrowing costs and greater difficulty lining up project financing, backlog among some contractors is beginning to dissipate.
“This is precisely what ABC economists predicted,” said Basu. “The vast majority of contractors could boast healthy backlog, especially those working in the manufacturing/industrial, infrastructure, data center and health care segments. But those tied to the office, shopping center and multifamily markets are likely experiencing difficulty lining up work. This helps explain declines in the readings for ABC’s Construction Confidence Index in all three dimensions: sales, employment and margins. Each of these readings, however, remains above 50, suggesting that, while industry growth is softening, it has yet to enter contractionary territory.”
Related Stories
Market Data | Oct 26, 2018
Nonresidential fixed investment returns to earth in Q3
Despite the broader economic growth, fixed investment inched 0.3% lower in the third quarter.
Market Data | Oct 24, 2018
Architecture firm billings slow but remain positive in September
Billings growth slows but is stable across sectors.
Market Data | Oct 19, 2018
New York’s five-year construction spending boom could be slowing over the next two years
Nonresidential building could still add more than 90 million sf through 2020.
Market Data | Oct 8, 2018
Global construction set to rise to US$12.9 trillion by 2022, driven by Asia Pacific, Africa and the Middle East
The pace of global construction growth is set to improve slightly to 3.7% between 2019 and 2020.
Market Data | Sep 25, 2018
Contractors remain upbeat in Q2, according to ABC’s latest Construction Confidence Index
More than three in four construction firms expect that sales will continue to rise over the next six months, while three in five expect higher profit margins.
Market Data | Sep 24, 2018
Hotel construction pipeline reaches record highs
There are 5,988 projects/1,133,017 rooms currently under construction worldwide.
Market Data | Sep 21, 2018
JLL fit out report portrays a hot but tenant-favorable office market
This year’s analysis draws from 2,800 projects.
Market Data | Sep 21, 2018
Mid-year forecast: No end in sight for growth cycle
The AIA Consensus Construction Forecast is projecting 4.7% growth in nonresidential construction spending in 2018.
Market Data | Sep 19, 2018
August architecture firm billings rebound as building investment spurt continues
Southern region, multifamily residential sector lead growth.
Market Data | Sep 18, 2018
Altus Group report reveals shifts in trade policy, technology, and financing are disrupting global real estate development industry
International trade uncertainty, widespread construction skills shortage creating perfect storm for escalating project costs; property development leaders split on potential impact of emerging technologies.