Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Designers / Specifiers / Landscape Architects | Oct 6, 2022
DAHLIN announces acquisition of Design Line Interiors
DAHLIN Architecture | Planning | Interiors announced today that it is expanding its interiors capabilities with the acquisition of Del Mar, California-based Design Line Interiors.
Contractors | Oct 6, 2022
Modular construction gets boost from impacts of the pandemic
The impact of the Covid pandemic on the construction industry appears to be fueling demand for modular construction methods, especially in the western U.S. and Canada.
Laboratories | Oct 5, 2022
Bigger is better for a maturing life sciences sector
CRB's latest report predicts more diversification and vertical integration in research and production.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 5, 2022
Co-living spaces, wellness-minded designs among innovations in multifamily housing
The booming multifamily sector shows no signs of a significant slowdown heading into 2023. Here is a round up of Giants 400 firms that are driving innovation in this sector.
Contractors | Oct 5, 2022
Materials shortages, cost spikes throwing Design-Bid-Build process out of whack
The traditional Design-Bid-Build delivery process is under considerable stress this year as materials shortages and cost spikes are upending usual practices, according to a new report from JLL.
Green | Oct 5, 2022
In California, a public power provider’s new headquarters serves as a test case for an innovative microgrid and for reducing greenhouse gas emissions
Sonoma Clean Power (SCP), the public power provider for California’s Sonoma and Mendocino Counties, recently unveiled its new all-electric headquarters.
Contractors | Oct 4, 2022
Which comes first, the building or the cost estimate?
At the start of a project, don’t forget to establish financial parameters when you’re discussing the design and program. By establishing the costs up front, you can avoid the pitfalls that might derail your project and guarantee its lasting success.
Fire and Life Safety | Oct 4, 2022
Fire safety considerations for cantilevered buildings
Bold cantilevered designs are prevalent today, as developers and architects strive to maximize space, views, and natural light in buildings. Cantilevered structures, however, present a host of challenges for building teams, according to José R. Rivera, PE, Associate Principal and Director of Plumbing and Fire Protection with Lilker.
| Oct 4, 2022
Rental property owners want access to utility usage data for whole properties
As pressure from investors for ESG reporting mounts, owners of multifamily properties increasingly look to collect whole-building utility usage data.
| Oct 4, 2022
In dire need of affordable housing, Aspen, Colo. will get a development that provides 277 affordable homes
A few miles from downtown Aspen, Colo., a development will provide 277 new affordable homes for an area experiencing a dire affordable housing crisis.