Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Standards | Oct 11, 2022
Peter Templeton named new USGBC and GBCI president and CEO
The U.S. Green Building Council (USGBC) and Green Business Certification Inc. (GBCI) appointed Peter Templeton as president and CEO.
Legislation | Oct 10, 2022
Chicago’s updated building energy code provides incentives for smart HVAC, water appliances
The Chicago City Council recently passed the 2022 Chicago Energy Transformation Code that is intended to align with the city’s goal of reducing carbon emissions by 62% from 2017 levels by 2040.
Contractors | Oct 7, 2022
Nonresidential construction spending down 0.4% in August, says ABC
National nonresidential construction spending was down 0.4% in August, according to an Associated Builders and Contractors analysis of data published today by the U.S. Census Bureau.
Multifamily Housing | Oct 7, 2022
Design for new Ft. Lauderdale mixed-use tower features sequence of stepped rounded volumes
The newly revealed design for 633 SE 3rd Ave., a 47-story, mixed-use tower in Ft. Lauderdale, features a sequence of stepped rounded volumes that ease the massing of the tower as it rises.
Giants 400 | Oct 6, 2022
Top 100 Medical Office Building Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
CannonDesign, Perkins Eastman, HGA, and E4H Environments for Health Architecture top the ranking of the nation's largest medical office building (MOB) architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Oct 6, 2022
Top 100 Outpatient Facility Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
Perkins and Will, HDR, CannonDesign, and Massa Multimedia Architecture top the ranking of the nation's largest outpatient facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Oct 6, 2022
Top 130 Hospital Facility Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
HDR, HKS, CannonDesign, and Stantec top the ranking of the nation's largest hospital facility architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Giants 400 | Oct 6, 2022
Top 115 Healthcare Sector Contractors + CM Firms for 2022
Turner Construction, Brasfield & Gorrie, DPR Construction, and JE Dunn Construction top the ranking of the nation's largest healthcare sector contractors and construction management (CM) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking factors all healthcare sector work, including hospitals, outpatient facilities, and medical office buildings.
Giants 400 | Oct 6, 2022
Top 90 Healthcare Sector Engineering + EA Firms for 2022
Jacobs, AECOM, WSP, and IMEG Corp. head the ranking of the nation's largest healthcare sector engineering and engineering/architecture (EA) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking factors all healthcare sector work, including hospitals, outpatient facilities, and medical office buildings.
Giants 400 | Oct 6, 2022
Top 170 Healthcare Sector Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
HDR, CannonDesign, HKS, and Stantec top the ranking of the nation's largest healthcare sector architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking factors all healthcare sector work, including hospitals, outpatient facilities, and medical office buildings.