Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Giants 400 | Sep 9, 2022
Top 120 Hospitality Sector Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
Gensler, WATG, HKS, and JCJ Architecture top the ranking of the nation's largest hospitality facilities sector architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report. Note: This ranking includes revenue for all hospitality facilities work, including casinos, hotels, and resorts.
| Sep 9, 2022
Add sand shortage to supply chain woes
As if it wasn’t enough to have lumber, windows, doors, and metal pipe in short supply, you can add sand, which is theoretically plentiful on Earth, to the list of construction materials that can be hard to come by.
Giants 400 | Sep 8, 2022
Top 115 Hotel Sector Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
Gensler, WATG, HKS, and Stantec top the ranking of the nation's largest hotel and resort sector architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
Senior Living Design | Sep 8, 2022
What’s new with AQ: The top trends in active adult living
Today's 55-or-better buyers are ready to design their lives and their homes as they see fit. With so much growth on tap, builders and developers must stay apprised of trends related to home, environment, and culture of 55+ communities.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Sep 8, 2022
Chicago Bears unveil preliminary master plan for suburban stadium district
As the 2022 NFL season kicks off, the league’s original franchise is fortifying plans to leave its landmark lakefront stadium for a multi-billion-dollar mixed-use stadium district in northwest suburban Arlington Heights.
| Sep 8, 2022
The Twin Cities’ LGBTQ health clinic moves into a new and improved facility
For more than 50 years, Family Tree Clinic has provided reproductive and sexual health services to underserved populations—from part of an old schoolhouse, until recently.
| Sep 8, 2022
U.S. construction costs expected to rise 14% year over year by close of 2022
Coldwell Banker Richard Ellis (CBRE) is forecasting a 14.1% year-on-year increase in U.S. construction costs by the close of 2022.
Giants 400 | Sep 7, 2022
Top 95 Industrial Sector Architecture + AE Firms for 2022
Ware Malcomb, Stantec, Haskell, and Macgregor Associates Architects top the ranking of the nation's largest industrial facility sector architecture and architecture/engineering (AE) firms for 2022, as reported in Building Design+Construction's 2022 Giants 400 Report.
| Sep 7, 2022
Use of GBCI building performance tools rapidly expanding
More than seven billion square feet of project space is now being tracked using Green Business Certification Inc.’s (GBCI’s) Arc performance platform.
| Sep 7, 2022
K-8 school will help students learn by conducting expeditions in their own communities
In August, SHP, an architecture, design, and engineering firm, broke ground on the new Peck Expeditionary Learning School in Greensboro, N.C. Guilford County Schools, one of the country’s 50 largest school districts, tapped SHP based on its track record of educational design.