Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
University Buildings | Feb 18, 2015
Preparing for the worst: Campus security since Virginia Tech
Seven years after the mass shootings at Virginia Tech, colleges and universities continue to shake up their emergency communications and response capabilities to shootings and other criminal threats.
Office Buildings | Feb 18, 2015
Why the mobile workplace isn't always mobile
Perkins+Will’s Janice Barnes addresses the nuance in mobility types and explains the importance of defining terms upfront.
University Buildings | Feb 17, 2015
BD+C exclusive: How security is influencing campus design and construction
Campus crime—whether real or perceived—presents Building Teams with more opportunities for early-stage consultation with university clients.
Architects | Feb 17, 2015
Architecture billings dip in January, severe weather likely to blame
“This easing in demand for design services is a bit of a surprise given the overall strength of the market over the past nine months,” said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 17, 2015
California launches pilot program to finance multifamily retrofits for energy efficiency
The Obama Administration and the state of California are teaming with the Chicago-based MacArthur Foundation on a pilot program whose goal is to unlock Property-Assessed Clean Energy financing for multifamily housing.
Sponsored | Building Team | Feb 17, 2015
Why diversity matters
Companies in the top quartile for gender or racial and ethnic diversity are more likely to have financial returns above their national industry medians.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 17, 2015
Young Millennials likely to return home
Ninety percent of individuals born between 1980 and 1984 and who hold a Bachelor’s degree left home before they were 27 years hold. However, half of this group later returned to their parents’ home, according to a study by the National Longitudinal Study of Youth.
Sponsored | Modular Building | Feb 17, 2015
When lava flow in Hawaii threatens a public school district, officials turn to modular
Hawaii Modular Space, a Williams Scotsman company, designed temporary classroom space for the Pahoa and Keeau schools that would become displaced due to ongoing lava flow in Pahoa, Hawaii.
Healthcare Facilities | Feb 17, 2015
10 healthcare trends worth sharing
The rise of the medical home model of care and ongoing Lean value stream improvement are among the top healthcare industry trends.
High-rise Construction | Feb 17, 2015
Work begins on Bjarke Ingels' pixelated tower in Calgary
Construction on Calgary’s newest skyscraper, the 66-story Telus Sky Tower, recently broke ground.