Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Feb 21, 2015
Pumped-up recreation centers help build body, mind, and spirit
Adopting facility layouts from Asian and European models, today’s sports and recreational buildings are becoming social hubs that accommodate a variety of community needs.
University Buildings | Feb 20, 2015
Penn strengthens campus security by reviving its surrounding neighborhood
In 1996, the University of Pennsylvania’s sprawling campus in Philadelphia was in the grip of an unprecedented crime wave. But instead of walling themselves off from their surrounding neighborhoods, the school decided to support the community.
Sports and Recreational Facilities | Feb 20, 2015
Chargers, Raiders propose joint stadium in Carson
Two rival teams may bring the NFL back to Los Angeles.
Cultural Facilities | Feb 20, 2015
‘Floating’ park on New York’s Hudson River moves one step closer to reality
The developers envision the 2.4-acre space as a major performance arts venue.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 19, 2015
Is multifamily construction getting too frothy for demand?
Contractors are pushing full speed ahead, but CoStar Group thinks a slowdown might be in order this year.
Architects | Feb 19, 2015
Illustrator Federico Babina imagines architecture from nowhere
The illustrator imagines architecture where past, present, and future intertwine.
Codes and Standards | Feb 18, 2015
USGBC concerned about developers using LEED registration in marketing
LEED administrators are concerned about a small group of developers or project owners who tout their projects as “LEED pre-certified” and then fail to follow through with certification.
Multifamily Housing | Feb 18, 2015
Make It Right unveils six designs for affordable housing complex
BNIM is among the six firms involved in the project.
Office Buildings | Feb 18, 2015
Commercial real estate developers optimistic, but concerned about taxes, jobs outlook
The outlook for the commercial real estate industry remains strong despite growing concerns over sluggish job creation and higher taxes, according to a new survey of commercial real estate professionals by NAIOP.
Museums | Feb 18, 2015
Foster + Partners' National Museum of Marine Science and Technology breaks ground in Taiwan
The museum will be home to an aquarium, exhibition space, and waterfront views.