Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Codes and Standards | Mar 2, 2015
Proposed energy standard for data centers, telecom buildings open for public comment
The intent of ASHRAE Standard 90.4P is to create a performance-based approach that would be more flexible and accommodating of innovative change.
K-12 Schools | Mar 1, 2015
Are energy management systems too complex for school facility staffs?
When school districts demand the latest and greatest, they need to think about how those choices will impact the district’s facilities employees.
Office Buildings | Mar 1, 2015
Google unveils dramatic tent-like, modular-focused plan for corporate HQ
The master plan by Bjarke Ingels and Thomas Heatherwick will wrap highly flexible office blocks in soaring translucent canopies.
Industrial Facilities | Feb 27, 2015
Massive windmill will double as mixed-use entertainment tower in Rotterdam
The 571-foot structure will house apartments, a hotel, restaurants, even a roller coaster.
Architects | Feb 27, 2015
5 finalists announced for 2015 Mies van der Rohe Award
Bjarke Ingels' Danish Maritime Museum and the Ravensburg Art Museum by Lederer Ragnarsdóttir Oei are among the five projects vying for the award.
Office Buildings | Feb 26, 2015
Using active design techniques to strengthen the corporate workplace and enhance employee wellness
The new Lentz Public Health Center in Nashville, Tenn., serves as a model of how those progressive and healthy changes can be made.
K-12 Schools | Feb 26, 2015
Should your next school project include a safe room?
Many school districts continue to resist mandating the inclusion of safe rooms or storm shelters in new and existing buildings. But that may be changing.
K-12 Schools | Feb 26, 2015
Construction funding still scarce for many school districts
Many districts are struggling to have new construction and renovation keep pace with student population growth.
K-12 Schools | Feb 26, 2015
D.C.'s Dunbar High School is world's highest-scoring LEED school, earns 91% of base credits
The 280,000-sf school achieved 91 points, out of 100 base points possible for LEED, making it the highest-scoring school in the world certified under USGBC’s LEED for Schools-New Construction system.
K-12 Schools | Feb 25, 2015
Polish architect designs modular ‘kids city’ kindergarten using shipping container frames
Forget the retrofit of a shipping container into a building for one moment. Designboom showcases the plans of Polish architect Adam Wiercinski to use just the recycled frames of containers to construct a “kids city.”