Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Building Team | May 8, 2015
Surety bond forms specifically for design-build projects now available
The documents are the first of their kind to be coauthored by designers and builders.
High-rise Construction | May 6, 2015
Parks in the sky? Subterranean bike paths? Meet the livable city, designed in 3D
Today’s great cities must be resilient—and open—to many things, including the influx of humanity, writes Gensler co-CEO Andy Cohen.
Architects | May 5, 2015
How to build 'smart' teams
In today's complex world, there are no simple answers—solutions to our most pressing problems aren't offered in 140 characters. Instead, it takes teams of people to rise to a challenge, resolve issues, and execute on strategy, writes Paladino's Julie Honeywell.
Multifamily Housing | May 1, 2015
Trade groups extend campaign to promote apartment living
The groups claim that there are more than 37 million Americans—12% of the population—living in just under 20 million apartment units nationwide. Apartments and their residents contribute $1.3 trillion annually to the economy.
Contractors | May 1, 2015
Nonresidential fixed investments fall in latest Construction Economic Update
This is the first time that nonresidential fixed investment declined since the first quarter of 2011, ABC reported. Nonresidential fixed investment had been rising by more than 4% on an annualized basis during five of the previous six quarters.
Architects | Apr 30, 2015
Safdie Architects accepting applications for 2015 Research Fellowship
The program, which features a theme of “dense urbanism,” encourages participants to tackle the challenges associated with contemporary urban landscapes using new tools and solutions to create a better functioning and humane city.
Museums | Apr 27, 2015
Finalists’ designs for Guggenheim Helsinki competition released
A custom-developed App engages an international public in the selection process.
Wood | Apr 26, 2015
Building wood towers: How high is up for timber structures?
The recent push for larger and taller wood structures may seem like an architectural fad. But Building Teams around the world are starting to use more large-scale structural wood systems.
Museums | Apr 23, 2015
Moshe Safdie unveils pentagonal scheme for National Medal of Honor Museum
The new museum near Charleston, S.C., will archive the history of the nation's highest military honorees.
Green | Apr 23, 2015
3 sustainable projects take top prize in 2015 Global Holcim Awards
Projects from Colombia, Sri Lanka, and the U.S. were chosen by the Holcim Foundation for the impact the projects have on their local communities.