Eight percent fewer homes will transact in 2014 than normal, purely due to student loan debt, according to analysis by Rick Palacios, Jr., and Ali Wolf of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.
In a new 30-page paper, the firm assesses the impact of student loans on home buying for households under the age of 40. Its conclusion: 414,000 transactions will be lost in 2014 due to student debt. At a typical price of $200,000, that equals $83 billion in lost volume.
Palacios and Wolf explain their methodology and findings:
The analysis was quite complicated and involved a few assumptions, but we believe it is conservative, primarily because we looked only at those under the age of 40 with student debt.
At a high level, the math is as follows:
• Student debt has ballooned from $241 billion to $1.1 trillion in just 11 years.
• 29 million of the 86 million people aged 20-39 have some student debt.
• Those 29 million individuals translate to 16.8 million households.
• Of the 16.8 million households, 5.9 million (or 35%) pay more than $250 per month in student loans, which inhibits at least $44,000 per year in mortgage capability for each of them.
• About 8% of the 20-39 age cohort usually buys a home each year, which would be 1.35 million transactions per year.
• Using previous academic literature as a benchmark for our own complicated calculation, we then estimated that today's purchase rate is reduced from the normal 8% depending on the level of student debt--ranging from 6.9% for those paying less than $100 per month in student loans to less than 1% for those paying over $1,300 per month. Other factors contribute to even less entry-level buying today.
While we applaud the increasing education, we need to realize that it comes with a cost known as student debt. We raised the red flag on student debt back in 2011 and continue to believe that this debt will delay homeownership for many, or at least require that they buy a less expensive home.
Related Stories
Office Buildings | Jun 11, 2015
Pop-up tree-office opens in London borough of Hackney
London's Hackney borough welcomed a new kind of workspace to Hoxton Square—the TreexOffice.
Cultural Facilities | Jun 10, 2015
Artists turn oil tankers into architecture
Four Dutch artists propose transforming tankers into monuments with mixed-use space.
Office Buildings | Jun 9, 2015
Bjarke Ingels unveils stepped design for final WTC tower
The towering "staircase" will rise from St. Paul’s chapel to the skyline, leaning against One World Trade Center.
Office Buildings | Jun 9, 2015
Hines planning $300 million office tower for Denver skyline
Designed by Pickard Chilton, the 640,000-sf tower is geared for large-scale tenants, with features like floor-to-ceiling glass, a 5,000-sf fitness center, a tenant lounge, and a series of outdoor terraces.
Architects | Jun 3, 2015
LEGO: An introduction to design
LEGO has changed a lot over the years, but has that been a good thing for encouraging creativity?
Cultural Facilities | Jun 2, 2015
Snøhetta and Dialog to revitalize Willamette Falls area in Oregon
As part of the plan, an abandoned paper mill will be repurposed, while landscaping and running trails will be added.
Office Buildings | Jun 1, 2015
SHoP Architects unveils dual-glass-box scheme for Uber HQ
The plan involves two glass buildings connected with criss-crossing bridges.
Contractors | Jun 1, 2015
Nonresidential construction spending surges in April
Nonresidential construction is up by a solid 8.8% over the past year, consistent with ABC's forecast of high single-digit growth.
Office Buildings | Jun 1, 2015
Can you make a new building as cool as a warehouse?
Just as we looked at that boarded up warehouse and thought it could be something other, office towers can be reborn, writes CannonDesign's Robert Benson.
Fire and Life Safety | May 27, 2015
7 bold applications and innovations for fire and life safety
BD+C’s roundup features colorful sprinklers for offices, hotels, museums; a fire-rated curtain wall at a transit hub in Manhattan; a combination CO/smoke detector; and more.