They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Mar 22, 2011
The American National Standards Institute accredits Stantec for greenhouse gas verification
Stantec Consulting Ltd.’s Atmospheric Environment Group has been awarded accreditation by the American National Standards Institute (ANSI) for verification of assertions related to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Scope of Accreditation is for verification of emissions and removals at the organizational level for Group 1 – General.
| Mar 22, 2011
Mayor Bloomberg unveils plans for New York City’s largest new affordable housing complex since the ’70s
Plans for Hunter’s Point South, the largest new affordable housing complex to be built in New York City since the 1970s, include new residences for 5,000 families, with more than 900 in this first phase. A development team consisting of Phipps Houses, Related Companies, and Monadnock Construction has been selected to build the residential portion of the first phase of the Queens waterfront complex, which includes two mixed-use buildings comprising more than 900 housing units and roughly 20,000 square feet of new retail space.
| Mar 21, 2011
RATIO Architects announces merger with Cherry Huffman Architects
RATIO Architects, Inc. with studios in Indianapolis and Champaign, Ill., recently announced it has merged with prominent Raleigh, N.C., firm Cherry Huffman Architects.
| Mar 18, 2011
Universities will compete to build a campus on New York City land
New York City announced that it had received 18 expressions of interest in establishing a research center from universities and corporations around the world. Struggling to compete with Silicon Valley, Boston, and other high-tech hubs, officials charged with developing the city’s economy have identified several city-owned sites that might serve as a home for the research center for applied science and engineering that they hope to establish.
| Mar 17, 2011
Perkins Eastman launches The Green House prototype design package
Design and architecture firm Perkins Eastman is pleased to join The Green House project and NCB Capital Impact in announcing the launch of The Green House Prototype Design Package. The Prototype will help providers develop small home senior living communities with greater efficiency and cost savings—all to the standards of care developed by The Green House project.
| Mar 17, 2011
Hospitality industry turns to HTS Texas for ‘do not disturb’ air conditioned comfort
Large resort hotels and hospitality properties throughout the Southwest have been working with local contractors, engineers and HTS Texas for the latest innovations in quiet heating, ventilating and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. The company has completed 12+ projects throughout Texas and the Southwestern U.S. over the past 18 to 24 months, and is currently working on six more hotel projects throughout the region.
| Mar 16, 2011
AIA offers assistance to Japan's Architects, U.S. agencies coordinating disaster relief
“Our hearts go out to the people of Japan as a result of this horrific earthquake and tsunami,” said Clark Manus, FAIA, 2011 President of the AIA. “We are in contact with our colleagues at AIA Japan and the Japan Institute of Architects to offer not only our condolences but our profession's technical and professional expertise when the initiative begins focusing on rebuilding."
| Mar 16, 2011
Are you working on a fantastic residence hall project? Want to tell us about it?
The feature story for the May 2011 issue of Building Design+Construction will focus on new trends in university residence hall design and construction, and we’re looking for great projects to report on and experts to interview. Projects can involve new construction or remodeling/reconstruction work, and can be recently completed, currently under construction, or still on the boards.
| Mar 16, 2011
Foster + Partners to design carbon-neutral urban park for West Kowloon Cultural District in Hong Kong
Foster + Partners has been selected by the board of the West Kowloon Cultural District Authority to design a massive 56-acre urban park on a reclaimed harbor-front site in Hong Kong. Designed as a carbon-neutral development, “City Park” will seamlessly blend into existing streets while creating large expanses of green space and seventeen new cultural venues.
