They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Apr 12, 2011
Luxury New York high rise adjacent to the High Line
Located adjacent to New York City’s High Line Park, 500 West 23rd Street will offer 111 luxury rental apartments when it opens later this year.
| Apr 12, 2011
College of New Jersey facility will teach teachers how to teach
The College of New Jersey broke ground on its 79,000-sf School of Education building in Ewing, N.J.
| Apr 12, 2011
Mental hospital in Boston redeveloped as healthcare complex
An abandoned state mental health facility in Boston’s prestigious Longwood Medical Area is being transformed into the Mass Mental Health Center, a four-building mixed-use complex that includes a mental health day hospital, a clinical and office building, a medical research facility for Brigham and Women’s Hospital, and a residential facility.
| Apr 12, 2011
Miami courthouse design does justice to children and the environment
Suffolk Construction broke ground recently for the Miami-Dade County Children’s Courthouse, a $328 million project the firm has a 30-month contract to complete.
| Apr 12, 2011
Long-awaited San Francisco center is music to jazz organization’s ears
After 28 years, SFJAZZ is getting its first permanent home. The San Francisco-based nonprofit, which is dedicated to advancing the art of jazz through concerts and educational programs, contracted local design firm Mark Cavagnero Associates and general contractor Hathaway Dinwiddie to create a modern performance center in the city’s Hayes Valley neighborhood
| Apr 12, 2011
Entrance pavilion adds subtle style to Natural History Museum of Los Angeles
A $13 million gift from the Otis Booth Foundation is funding a new entrance pavilion at the Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County. CO Architects, Los Angeles, is designing the frameless structure with an energy-efficient curtain wall, vertical suspension rods, and horizontal knife plates to make it as transparent as possible.
| Apr 12, 2011
BIM Grows Up: Separating Hype from Reality in a 3D World
While BIM adoption still lags in both design and construction, some enterprising owners, architects, and contractors are unlocking the potential of this dynamic technology.
| Apr 12, 2011
Metal cladding: Enhancing design with single-skin panels, MCMs, and IMPs
Single-skin metal panels, metal composite panels, and insulated metal panels can add both aesthetic and functional value to your projects, if you use them correctly.
| Apr 12, 2011
American Institute of Architects announces Guide for Sustainable Projects
AIA Guide for Sustainable Projects to provide design and construction industries with roadmap for working on sustainable projects.
| Apr 11, 2011
Wind turbines to generate power for new UNT football stadium
The University of North Texas has received a $2 million grant from the State Energy Conservation Office to install three wind turbines that will feed the electrical grid and provide power to UNT’s new football stadium.
