They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Dec 14, 2011
Belfer Research Building tops out in New York
Hundreds of construction trades people celebrate reaching the top of concrete structure for facility that will accelerate treatments and cures at world-renowned institution.
| Dec 14, 2011
Tyler Junior College and Sika Sarnafil team up to save energy
Tyler Junior College wanted a roofing system that wouldn’t need any attention for a long time.
| Dec 13, 2011
Lutron’s Commercial Experience Center awarded LEED Gold
LEED certification of the Lutron facility was based on a number of green design and construction features that positively impact the project itself and the broader community. These features include: optimization of energy performance through the use of lighting power, lighting controls and HVAC, plus the use of daylight.
| Dec 12, 2011
AIA Chicago announces Skidmore, Owings & Merrill as 2011 Firm of the Year
SOM has been a leader in the research and development of specialized technologies, new processes and innovative ideas, many of which have had a palpable and lasting impact on the design profession and the physical environment.
| Dec 12, 2011
Skanska to expand and renovate hospital in Georgia for $103 Million
The expansion includes a four-story, 17,500 square meters clinical services building and a five-story, 15,700 square meters, medical office building. Skanska will also renovate the main hospital.
| Dec 12, 2011
CRSI design awards deadline extended to December 31
The final deadline is extended until December 31st, with judging shortly thereafter at the World of Concrete.
| Dec 12, 2011
Mojo Stumer takes top honors at AIA Long Island Design Awards
Firm's TriBeCa Loft wins "Archi" for interior design.
| Dec 10, 2011
10 Great Solutions
The editors of Building Design+Construction present 10 “Great Solutions” that highlight innovative technology and products that can be used to address some of the many problems Building Teams face in their day-to-day work. Readers are encouraged to submit entries for Great Solutions; if we use yours, you’ll receive a $25 gift certificate. Look for more Great Solutions in 2012 at: www.bdcnetwork.com/greatsolutions/2012.