They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Jan 3, 2012
Weingarten, Callan appointed to BD+C Editorial Board
Building Design+Construction has named two new members to its editorial board. Both are past recipients of BD+C’s “40 Under 40” honor.
| Jan 3, 2012
New Chicago hospital prepared for pandemic, CBR terror threat
At a cost of $654 million, the 14-story, 830,000-sf medical center, designed by a Perkins+Will team led by design principal Ralph Johnson, FAIA, LEED AP, is distinguished in its ability to handle disasters.
| Jan 3, 2012
BIM: not just for new buildings
Ohio State University Medical Center is converting 55 Medical Center buildings from AutoCAD to BIM to improve quality and speed of decision making related to facility use, renovations, maintenance, and more.
| Jan 3, 2012
New SJI Rule on Steel Joists
A new rule from the Steel Joist Institute clarifies when local reinforcement of joists is required for chord loads away from panel points. SJI members offer guidance about how and when to specify loads.
| Jan 3, 2012
AIA Course: New Developments in Concrete Construction
Earn 1.0 AIA/CES learning units by studying this article and successfully completing the online exam.
| Jan 3, 2012
The Value of Historic Paint Investigations
An expert conservator provides a three-step approach to determining a historic building’s “period of significance”—and how to restore its painted surfaces to the correct patterns and colors.
| Jan 3, 2012
28th Annual Reconstruction Awards: Bringing Hope to Cancer Patients
A gothic-style structure is reconstructed into comfortable, modern patient residence facility for the American Cancer Society.
| Jan 3, 2012
Art Gensler: Still Making a Difference for Clients Every Day
After running what is today the largest architecture firm in the world for more than four decades, M. Arthur Gensler, Jr., FAIA, FIIDA, RIBA, is content to be just another employee at the firm that bears his name.
| Jan 3, 2012
Gensler: 'The One Firm Firm'
The giant architecture firm succeeds by giving each of its more than 3,000 employees the opportunity for career growth and professional leadership.
| Jan 3, 2012
Rental Renaissance, The Rebirth of the Apartment Market
Across much of the U.S., apartment rents are rising, vacancy rates are falling. In just about every major urban area, new multifamily rental projects and major renovations are coming online. It may be too soon to pronounce the rental market fully recovered, but the trend is promising.
