They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Jun 17, 2014
World's tallest pair of towers to serve as 'environmental catalyst' for China
The Phoenix Towers are expected to reach 1 km, the same height as Adrian Smith and Gordon Gill's Kingdom Tower, but would set a record for multiple towers in one development.
| Jun 16, 2014
6 U.S. cities at the forefront of innovation districts
A new Brookings Institution study records the emergence of “competitive places that are also cool spaces.”
| Jun 13, 2014
Gilbane Building Company names new president and chief operating officer
Gilbane Building company hires new president and COO
| Jun 13, 2014
First look: BIG's spiraling museum for watchmaker Audemars Piguet
The glass-and-steel pavilion's spiral structure acts as a storytelling device for the company's history.
| Jun 13, 2014
Grocery stores, restaurants make neighborhoods most desirable [infographic]
John Burns Real Estate Consulting ranks the top 25 housing amenities by generation, based on feedback from more than 20,000 home shoppers.
| Jun 12, 2014
Zaha Hadid's 'gravity defying' Issam Fares Institute opens in Beirut
The design builds upon the institute’s mission as a catalyst and connector between AUB, researchers and the global community.
| Jun 12, 2014
Tod Williams Billie Tsien Architects' design selected for new UCSC facility
The planned site is a natural landscape among redwood trees with views over Monterey Bay, a site that the architects have called “one of the most beautiful they have ever worked on.”
| Jun 12, 2014
Austrian university develops 'inflatable' concrete dome method
Constructing a concrete dome is a costly process, but this may change soon. A team from the Vienna University of Technology has developed a method that allows concrete domes to form with the use of air and steel cables instead of expensive, timber supporting structures.
| Jun 11, 2014
David Adjaye’s housing project in Sugar Hill nears completion
A new development in New York's historic Sugar Hill district nears completion, designed to be an icon for the neighborhood's rich history.
| Jun 11, 2014
Bill signing signals approval to revitalize New Orleans’ convention center corridor
A plan to revitalize New Orleans' Convention Center moves forward after Louisiana governor signs bill.
