They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
| Jun 20, 2014
HOK releases proposal for Obama Library and Museum Campus
Proposal would locate the library in Chicago's historic Bronzeville neighborhood, aiming for urban revitalization as well as Living Building certification.
| Jun 20, 2014
Sterling Bay pulled on board for Chicago Old Main Post Office project
Sterling Bay Cos. and Bill Davies' International Property Developers North America partner up for a $500 million restoration of Chicago's Old Main Post Office
| Jun 20, 2014
First look: Hive-like 'Learning Hub' to be built in Singapore
In a competition to design a "Learning Hub" for students at Nanyang University in Singapore, London-based firm Heatherwick studio has won with a rounded, hive-like design.
| Jun 20, 2014
U.S. Energy Information Administration releases preliminary Commercial Buildings Energy Consumption Survey results
Federal survey project shows that commercial-building floorspace has grown 22% since 2003; energy-use data will be released in Spring 2015.
| Jun 19, 2014
First Look: 10 Design unveils new luxury apartments plan in Dubai
The Seventh Heaven complex features a stepped form that will offer stunning views of the Dubai skyline.
| Jun 19, 2014
First look: JDS Architects' roller-coaster-like design for Istanbul waterfront development
The development's wavy and groovy design promises unobstructed views of the Marmara Sea for every unit.
| Jun 19, 2014
NCARB study: Architects getting licensed at younger age
A new report from NCARB shows that the median age of people at initial licensure is at a 10 year low.
| Jun 19, 2014
Singapore's 'Tree House' vertical gardens break Guinness World Record
The high-rise development will have a 24,638-sf vertical garden, breaking a Guinness World Record.
| Jun 18, 2014
Design tips for Alzheimer care facilities
A new white paper from the Alzheimer’s Foundation of America and Perkins Eastman details best design practices for residential care settings for individuals living with Alzheimer’s disease.
| Jun 18, 2014
BSB Design Reinforces Client-Focus Legacy With Recent Changes
His 26-plus year history with BSB Design paired with his client relations skills and operational and organizational acumen make Swift well-suited to perpetuate the legacy of founder Jack Bloodgood: That everyone deserves to live in a home designed by an architect.