They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Building Owners | Feb 4, 2021
The Weekly show, Feb 4, 2021: The rise of healthy buildings and human performance
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders from Brookfield Properties, NBBJ, and UL about healthy buildings certification and improving human performance through research-based design.
AEC Tech | Jan 28, 2021
The Weekly show, Jan 28, 2021: Generative design tools for feasibility studies, and landscape design trends in the built environment
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders from Studio-MLA and TestFit about landscape design trends in the built environment, and how AEC teams and real estate developers can improve real estate feasibility studies with real-time generative design.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 27, 2021
2021 multifamily housing outlook: Dallas, Miami, D.C., will lead apartment completions
In its latest outlook report for the multifamily rental market, Yardi Matrix outlined several reasons for hope for a solid recovery for the multifamily housing sector in 2021, especially during the second half of the year.
Modular Building | Jan 26, 2021
Offsite manufacturing startup iBUILT positions itself to reduce commercial developers’ risks
iBUILT plans to double its production capacity this year, and usher in more technology and automation to the delivery process.
Architects | Jan 26, 2021
Perkins&Will and AIA set stage for industry adoption of Justice, Equity, Diversity, and Inclusion (J.E.D.I) programs
A new white paper provides U.S. architecture firms with clear guidance on establishing just, equitable, diverse, and inclusive work cultures.
Data Centers | Jan 21, 2021
The Weekly show, Jan 21, 2021: Data centers in a pandemic world, and LGBT certification for AEC firms
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders about LGBT certification for architecture, engineering, and construction firms, and the current state of data centers in a pandemic world.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 20, 2021
Abandoned Miami hospital gets third life as waterfront condo development
The 1920s King Cole Hotel becomes the Ritz-Carlton Residences Miami in the largest residential adaptive reuse project in South Florida.
Market Data | Jan 19, 2021
2021 construction forecast: Nonresidential building spending will drop 5.7%, bounce back in 2022
Healthcare and public safety are the only nonresidential construction sectors that will see growth in spending in 2021, according to AIA's 2021 Consensus Construction Forecast.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 14, 2021
The Weekly show, Jan 14, 2021: Passive House innovations, and launching a design studio during the pandemic
This week on The Weekly show, BD+C editors speak with AEC industry leaders about innovations in Passive House design, and the challenges of building a design team and opening a new design studio during a pandemic.
Multifamily Housing | Jan 8, 2021
Student housing development in the time of COVID-19
Despite the coronavirus pandemic, many college and university residences were completed in time for classes, live or virtual. Here are 14 of the best.