They’re all “world middleweight cities” that are likely to become regional megacities (10 million people) by 2025—along with Dongguan, Guangzhou, Hangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, and Wuhan (China); Kinshasa (Democratic Republic of the Congo); Jakarta (Indonesia); Lahore (Pakistan); and Chennai (India).
These “emerging middleweight” cities are among the “City 600,” the top 600 cities by contribution to global GDP growth from 2007 to 2005, as defined in a new report from McKinsey Global Institute: “Urban World: Mapping the economic power of cities”.
The 1.5 billion people who live in the City 600 (22% of world population) accounted for $30 trillion of GDP in 2007—more than half of global GDP. The top 100 alone generated $21 trillion, 38% of global GDP, according to McKinsey.
By 2025, these 600 cities will be home to 2.0 billion, a quarter of the world’s population, and account for $64 trillion, or 60% of global GDP.
The top 25 “hot spots” for GDP by 2025 include (in rank order) New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Houston, Philadelphia, Boston, and San Francisco, along with such places as São Paolo (Brazil), Rhein-Ruhr (Germany), Mexico City, Randstad (Netherlands), Shanghai, Beijing, and Hong Kong.
Other key findings of the McKinsey study:
• By 2025, the makeup of the City 600 will change as the center of gravity of the urban world moves south and east. One-third of developed market cities will no longer make the top 600.
• By 2025, up to 136 new cities will enter the City 600 list, all of them from the developing world—100 of them from China alone, including Haerbin, Shantou, and Guiyang.
• India will contribute 13 newcomers to the City 600 list, including Hyderabad and Surat. Latin America will add eight, notably Cancún (Mexico) and Barranquilla (Colombia).
• About 310 million more people of working-age population will live in the City 600 by 2025—almost 35% of the expansion of the global workforce, almost all of it in emerging markets and two-thirds in China and South Asia.
What do all these fascinating data points mean to the design and construction industry, and to you as an AEC professional? In a nutshell, the McKinsey people are saying, If you want to grow your business—and your career—over the next 15 years, you must look to foreign climes.
It is in the emerging cities that GDP will be growing at a faster rate than global GDP. Where the workforce will be expanding more quickly than in the rest of the world. Where demand for housing, retail shops, schools, libraries, museums, data centers, universities, office buildings, religious centers—all the magnificent structures you and your firms create and build—will be accelerating at a hyperfast rate compared to the growth, if any, in much of the developed world.
To be competitive in the coming decade and a half, AEC firms and professionals are going to have to shift their lines of sight eastward and southerly, to places with names like Luanda, Chongqing, Dhaka, Colombo, and Grande Vitória.
Related Stories
Architects | Jun 15, 2021
Sandy Hook Permanent Memorial set to break ground
SWA Group designed the project.
Architects | Jun 15, 2021
Chicago Architecture Center and Chicago Architectural Club announce competition calling for new visions for State of Illinois “Thompson Center”
Competition seeks to give State of Illinois Center new life while preserving its architecture and public character.
Wood | Jun 10, 2021
Three AEC firms launch a mass timber product for quicker school construction
TimberQuest brand seeks to avoid overinvestment in production that has plagued other CLT providers.
Office Buildings | Jun 10, 2021
The future of the workplace is social clubs
Office design experts from NELSON Worldwide propose a new concept for the workplace, one that resembles the social clubs of the past.
Multifamily Housing | Jun 3, 2021
Student Housing Trends 2021-2022
In this exclusive video interview for HorizonTV, Fred Pierce, CEO of Pierce Education Properties, developer and manager of off-campus student residences, chats with Rob Cassidy, Editor, MULTIFAMILY Design + Construction about student housing during the pandemic and what to expect for on-campus and off-campus housing in Fall 2021 and into 2022.
Architects | Jun 2, 2021
Two new practice leaders appointed at FGM Architects
FGM Architects appoints Jan Behounek to lead Higher Education and Scott Nall to lead Federal Practice.
Building Technology | Jun 1, 2021
Orro Announces Google Nest Integration for the Orro Switch
Orro, creators of the professional-grade top-of-the-line Orro Smart Living System, today announced the integration of Nest products to Orro. As a certified partner in Google’s Device Access program, this latest Orro integration allows homeowners to have seamless control and access to Nest thermostats and doorbells from any Orro Switch throughout the home – creating a single unified smart home system with advanced, intelligent ambient control.
High-rise Construction | May 27, 2021
The anti-high rise: Seattle's The Net by NBBJ
In this exclusive video interview for HorizonTV, Ryan Mullenix, Design Partner with NBBJ, talks with BD+C's John Caulfield about a new building in Seattle called The Net that promotes wellness and connectivity.
Digital Twin | May 24, 2021
Digital twin’s value propositions for the built environment, explained
Ernst & Young’s white paper makes its cases for the technology’s myriad benefits.
Senior Living Design | May 19, 2021
Senior living design: Post-COVID trends and innovations
Two senior living design experts discuss the latest trends and innovations in the senior living building sector.