“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Aug 11, 2014
New guide for prevention of thermal bridging in commercial buildings
The guide aims to overcome obstacles with respect to mitigating thermal bridging to reduce energy consumption in buildings.
| Aug 8, 2014
Government Sector Giants: Public-sector construction slow, but stirring [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Improving energy performance of existing properties through targeted upgrades and large-scale reconstruction continues to be a federal priority, according to BD+C's 2014 Giants 300 Report.
Sponsored | | Aug 8, 2014
Setting guidelines for construction PDF documents across the AEC industry
Sasha Reed interviews two members of the coalition responsible for creating new Guidelines for Construction PDF Documents. SPONSORED CONTENT
Sponsored | | Aug 8, 2014
Safe and secure: Fire and security glazing solution for Plaquemines Parish Detention Center
When the designers at L. R. Kimball looked for an all-in-one clear, wire-free glazing solution that protects against fire, bullets and forced entry for the new Plaquemines Parish Detention Center, SAFTI FIRST supplied a complete single-source tested and listed assembly that was easy to install and maintenance-free.
| Aug 7, 2014
Office Sector Giants: ‘Flex’ reigns supreme in hot office construction market [2014 BD+C Giants 300 Report]
The adage “doing more with less” has become a byword for many businesses since the Great Recession, and clients are trying to maximize every precious inch, according to BD+C's 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 6, 2014
BIG reinvents the zoo with its 'Zootopia' natural habitat concept [slideshow]
Bjarke Ingels’ firm is looking to improve the 1960s-designed Givskund Zoo in Denmark by giving the animals a freer range to roam.
| Aug 6, 2014
The Dead Prize: A new award to recognize poorly designed buildings
If the film industry has its Razzie awards, architecture will have its Dead Prize, created by Architecture for Humanity co-founder Cameron Sinclair to recognize projects that actively harm the planet.
| Aug 6, 2014
Multifamily Sector Giants: Younger consumers, Sunbelt renaissance energize multifamily housing [2014 Giants 300 Report]
Multifamily housing construction is expected to remain relatively strong throughout 2014. Starts picked up in 2013, with completions due to catch up this year, finally approaching pre-recession levels, according to BD+C's 2014 Giants 300 Report.
| Aug 5, 2014
Risk scanning: A new tool for managing healthcare facilities
Using well-known risk analytics applied to pre-existing facility data, risk scanning can provide a much richer view of facility condition more consistent with actual management decision making.
| Aug 5, 2014
Shigeru Ban-designed Aspen Art Museum will open doors to public this week
After 18 month of planning and construction, the museum will open its new Shigeru Ban-designed facility to the public on August 9.