“Even a dead cat will bounce if it’s dropped from a high enough altitude,” says an old Wall Street adage. Major economic signals reveal the office building industry is experiencing “a dead cat bounce.”
Sale prices for office buildings enjoyed a moderate bounce to the upside, following the financial crisis of 2007 - 2008. However, the recession and its legacy have vaporized an estimated 275 to 550 million square feet of demand for U.S. office space. While the carnage in the labor market has been slow to influence the office market, the aftershock is beginning to be felt across the country as tenants shed surplus office space.
This assessment comes from B. Alan Whitson, RPA, President of Corporate Realty, Design & Management Institute, and Chair of the Model Green Lease Task Force in a multipart series Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce. In Part One of this series, Whitson zeroes in on changes in the labor market, how it affects demand for office space, and five trends to watch.
“Most pundits have been tracking ‘new unemployment claims’ as their indicator of choice,” says Whitson. “While this worked in past recessions, this time the key is the number of job openings. Before the recession, we averaged 4 million job openings a month. Since the recession ended, job openings have averaged 2.7 million a month. In contrast, layoffs are running 2.1 million a month slightly below the prerecession average of 2.3 million a month. With the economy short 1.3 million job openings every month, a major shake out in the office building market is occurring.”
Five trends to watch from Office Buildings: The Dead Cat Bounce - Part One:
1. Tenants are taking less space, signing short-term leases, and spending less on tenant improvements
2. At 17% vacancy nationwide, tenants are becoming more selective about the space and buildings they lease. Yet, landlords have the upper hand in some submarkets. Tenant that are willing to be flexible and creative can make can make great deals on great space
3. Well-informed building owners will get more creative about the product the offer – work environment vs. square feet
4. Look for an “Uber” class of office buildings to emerge, a combination of location, style, technology, and sustainability. Many 60s, 70s, and 80s era buildings have great locations, good architectural bones and maybe more competitive than some of the newer buildings given a smart upgrade to the skin, mechanical and electrical systems
5. While technology allows us to work anywhere, where we work is becoming more important
As the series moves forward, Whitson will address how these and other changes affect the design, construction, and operation of office buildings. The changing relationship between building owners and their tenants, the leases negotiated, and the types of office buildings tenants are seeking. The goal of the series is to identify the pitfalls to avoid and where to profit from the changes in the office- building marketplace. BD+C
Related Stories
| Aug 21, 2014
Must See: Detroit's Beaux-Arts parking garage
An opulent Renaissance Revival building in downtown Detroit is being used as a parking garage.
| Aug 20, 2014
WELL Building: The next step in green sports construction
The WELL Building Standard, a new protocol that focuses on human wellness within the built environment, is a particularly good fit for sports facilities, write Skanska's Tom Tingle and Beth Heider.
| Aug 20, 2014
Seattle's King Street Station thoughtfully restored [2014 Reconstruction Awards]
After years of neglect and botched renovations, King Street Station sparkles once again.
| Aug 19, 2014
Goettsch Partners unveils design for mega mixed-use development in Shenzhen [slideshow]
The overall design concept is of a complex of textured buildings that would differentiate from the surrounding blue-glass buildings of Shenzhen.
| Aug 18, 2014
Perkins+Will expands planning practice with strategic focus on underserved U.S. communities
The broadened focus is resulting in comprehensive, long-term plans that will guide new growth in places like Buffalo, N.Y., Kingston, R.I., and Brooklyn, N.Y.
| Aug 18, 2014
SPARK’s newly unveiled mixed-use development references China's flowing hillscape
Architecture firm SPARK recently finished a design for a new development in Shenzhen. The 770,700 square-foot mixed-use structure's design mimics the hilly landscape of the site's locale.
| Aug 18, 2014
Seaside luxury: Arquitectonica, Melo Group introduce Aria on the Bay condo tower in Miami
Melo Group has launched sales for Aria on the Bay, its new 647-unit luxury condominium in Miami. The bayfront condo will overlook Margaret Pace Park, Biscayne Bay and the Miami Beach skyline.
Sponsored | | Aug 16, 2014
Fire-rated framing system makes the grade at Johnson & Wales University Center
The precision engineering of TGP’s Fireframes Aluminum Series creates narrow profiles and crisp sightlines at Johnson & Wales University Center for Physician Assistant Studies
| Aug 16, 2014
The science of learning: Designing the STEM learning facilities of the future
New technology and changing pedagogies are influencing how to best teach a generation of learners who have never known a world without smartphones or tablets, writes HOK's Kimberly Robidoux.
| Aug 15, 2014
First look: RMJM’s 'jumping fish' tower design for the Chinese Riviera
The tower's fish-jumping gesture is meant to symbolize the prosperity and rapid transformation of Zhuhai, China.